Part of: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
This Polymarket asks whether the finalized 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls reported by IMF Portwatch for June 30, 2026 will fall between 0 and 10. The market covers reported arrivals of container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, and PolySpotter currently tracks $1,443 in smart money with 1 signal on this market.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,443.
Categories: Oil, Iran, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitical shipping market, with the bet representing a meaningful share of recent volume.
- This bettor has won 64% of 1,659 resolved bets and is up $252k lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, active across 404 markets with $1.77M in detected positioning.
- This $1.4k No buy is large for a quiet market, equal to about 40% of the past day’s volume.
$1,443 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $5,735
- 0x00d2...fb50 — Yes, $4,887 (41% win rate)
- 0xc040...beac — No, $2,496 (43% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — No, $2,000 (55% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $1,700 (64% win rate)
- 0x5a21...9318 — Yes, $1,222 (46% win rate)
- 0x7495...7fcf — Yes, $1,200
- 0x0c15...944d — Yes, $800
- 0xff52...4546 — Yes, $620
- 0x3a59...6c6f — Yes, $570
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 5 related markets