Part of: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,443.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitical shipping market, with the bet representing a meaningful share of recent volume.

  • This bettor has won 64% of 1,659 resolved bets and is up $252k lifetime.
  • They are a heavy cross-market trader, active across 404 markets with $1.77M in detected positioning.
  • This $1.4k No buy is large for a quiet market, equal to about 40% of the past day’s volume.

$1,443 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 93293150, $31,007
  2. 0x8c66...44f3 Outcome 11185701, $2,521 (85% win rate)
  3. 0x47c1...825f Outcome 11185701, $2,427 (64% win rate)
  4. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 11185701, $1,527 (60% win rate)
  5. 0xe94b...5abe Outcome 11185701, $1,462 (73% win rate)
  6. 0x2158...9198 Outcome 11185701, $1,331
  7. 0x4f1d...8de2 Outcome 11185701, $888 (75% win rate)
  8. 0xdad7...005a Outcome 11185701, $670
  9. 0x828e...c21b Outcome 11185701, $624
  10. 0xff52...4546 Outcome 11185701, $620

Related Theses

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Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

ResolvedAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?$1,443 tracked1 signalOilIranHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzRewards 20, 4.5, 50

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

52d ago

$1,443 on No at 85¢

Related Theses