Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,920.

Categories: traffic, Hormoz, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, tanker, Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100

Notable Trades

87% winner buying late Yes

A highly experienced profitable wallet bought Yes ahead of expected data publication, coinciding with a major move from the market's prior range to 97%.

  • This bettor has won 87% of 737 resolved bets and is up $57.7k lifetime.
  • They bought $3.9k of Yes at 89¢ before the market jumped to 97¢.
  • The market has moved far above its prior range, suggesting fresh confidence before final data resolves it.

$3,920 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $22,418
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $11,015 (48% win rate)
  3. 0x360d...ca64 Yes, $5,746
  4. 0xa510...1f80 No, $5,296
  5. 0x9aeb...2729 No, $4,717 (67% win rate)
  6. 0xbeb9...3870 Yes, $4,649 (52% win rate)
  7. 0x0562...9d66 Yes, $3,456 (41% win rate)
  8. 0xea79...a9cc No, $1,841 (66% win rate)
  9. 0xd064...c4d1 Yes, $1,689 (54% win rate)
  10. 0xeb75...446d Yes, $1,620

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Resolved$3,920 tracked1 signaltrafficHormozGeopoliticsU.S. x IrantankerStrait of HormuzOilIranRewards 50, 4.5, 100
Yes
92¢
No
8¢

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
101¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

2h ago

$3,920 on Yes at 89¢

89¢92¢3¢

Related Theses