Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,893.

Categories: Hungary Election, Hungary, Fidesz, Magyar, Elections, Global Elections, Orban, Politics, Hungarian, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

84% win-rate political grinder

A highly profitable 84% win-rate political trader with broad cross-market experience is buying No at 71¢ in a liquid Hungary election market, making this a credible follow signal despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $303k overall.
  • They have traded 82 markets across 45 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off hit.
  • They bought No at 71¢, a fairly confident price in a real political market with decent liquidity.

$1,621 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

84% winner on Hungary NO

A proven profitable bettor with an 84% win rate and activity across 79 related markets bought No in a meaningful Hungary election seat market, making this a credible thesis-driven trade worth following.

  • This bettor wins 84% of their resolved trades and is up about $303k lifetime.
  • They trade across events at scale — 79 markets and $1.7M total volume suggests a repeatable edge, not a one-off bet.
  • They bought No at 69¢ while the market still offers 68¢, showing a clear bearish view on Tisza clearing 130 seats.

$2,272 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xdc03...804c Outcome 87658547, $20,370 (82% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 87658547, $16,488
  3. 0xdc30...ab64 Outcome 87658547, $9,845
  4. 0x7664...2e50 Outcome 87658547, $9,144 (67% win rate)
  5. 0xf2f6...5817 Outcome 87658547, $7,181 (75% win rate)
  6. 0xc4fd...fe19 Outcome 87658547, $3,000 (83% win rate)
  7. 0xfcf2...a469 Outcome 87658547, $3,000
  8. 0xbc60...af79 Outcome 87658547, $2,900 (59% win rate)
  9. 0x4be5...c1b3 Outcome 87658547, $2,630 (82% win rate)
  10. 0x0a6d...1d0a Outcome 87658547, $1,275

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Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Resolved$3,893 tracked2 signalsHungary ElectionHungaryFideszMagyarElectionsGlobal ElectionsOrbanPoliticsHungarianRewards 20, 4.5, 50

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by TISZA in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For parties that contest some seats jointly with another party, including as part of a joint national party list, the number of seats won by the specified party will be determined based on a consensus of credible reporting. If necessary, official information identifying the party affiliation of specific elected candidates, including candidate registration records, parliamentary party member lists, and similar official sources, will also be used. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Notable Trades

Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

7d ago

$1,621 on No at 71¢

Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

7d ago

$2,272 on No at 69¢

Related Theses