Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?
This Polymarket tracks whether TISZA will win at least 100 seats in Hungary’s parliamentary election scheduled for April 12, 2026. The market resolves Yes if TISZA reaches 100 or more seats in the National Assembly, and No otherwise, with a fallback resolution to No if results are not definitive by October 31, 2026. Recent smart money activity includes a new wallet betting No.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least the listed number of seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,034.
Categories: Elections, Magyar, Politics, Hungary Election, Global Elections, Orban, Hungary, Fidesz
Notable Trades
New wallet betting NO
A very new wallet has made repeated sizable bets against Tisza in a relatively thin election market, suggesting fresh conviction worth monitoring despite no track record yet.
- This 9-day-old wallet has already been flagged twice for sizable bets, with $2,068 total across alerts
- The bet went into a quieter market with just $3.3k of 24-hour volume and a wide 10-point spread
- They bought No at 40¢ while the market now shows 36¢, so the position is already slightly in the money
$1,034 on No
Top Holders
- 0x629b...995a — Yes, $4,611 (57% win rate)
- 0xa6e0...a72b — No, $2,866
- 0x0fd3...ac03 — No, $2,051
- 0xa665...d7d9 — No, $1,634
- 0xc853...9d37 — No, $1,279
- 0xf2f6...5817 — No, $1,000 (75% win rate)
- 0xeca0...e8f8 — Yes, $750 (49% win rate)
- 0x460a...d738 — Yes, $634
- 0x88b5...205c — Yes, $502 (39% win rate)
- 0x75d1...7a5f — No, $452
