Part of: Hungary Parliamentary Election: Popular Vote Winner
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,688.
Categories: Politics, Elections, Hungary, Global Elections, Orban, Magyar, Hungary Election
Notable Trades
12-wallet sharp cluster
A highly profitable political trader with an 85% win rate and a 12-wallet linked cluster added a sizable YES position in a major election market, making this coordinated flow worth following despite the already-high price.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.26M across more than 1,000 bets.
- 12 wallets funded by the same source have been tracked before, pointing to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- They bought YES at 86¢ in a liquid election market, implying confidence that Tisza remains a strong favorite even after an 8.5-point weekly rise.
$7,537 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Repeat new wallet contrarian
A brand-new wallet has already made repeated four-figure bets across this election event, and this trade is a fresh contrarian buy against an 82% favorite.
- This wallet is less than 9 hours old and has already placed about $11.7k in flagged bets
- It is buying against an 82% market favorite at 19¢, a clear contrarian position rather than routine flow
- The market is liquid and active, so choosing the No side here suggests deliberate conviction on this election outcome
$1,102 on No
Profitable serial political bettor
A high-volume serial political trader with a strong long-term record bought Tisza Yes at 80¢, making this worth surfacing despite only one signal.
- This bettor has won 244 of 348 resolved trades and is up $448k overall
- They have traded 105 markets across 79 events for $2.7M total, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
- Bought Yes at 80¢ in a reasonably active election market, implying they still see value even with Tisza already favored
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
94% win-rate bettor
A highly profitable wallet with a 94% win rate made a meaningful $4.1k buy that was over 60% of recent market volume, suggesting conviction despite only a moderate composite score.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $85k across 36 bets
- They bought $4.1k of Yes, equal to 62% of the market's recent trading volume
- Entry around 81¢ shows conviction even after the market moved up to about 80¢
$4,103 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
88% win-rate political bettor
A bettor with an 88% win rate and positive realized P&L is adding a meaningful Yes position in a political market near current highs, making this worth watching despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $1,034 on roughly $8,958 invested
- They bought Yes at 78¢, a price that says they still see value even after the market moved up
- The bet is notable versus roughly $6.6k of 24-hour volume, suggesting real conviction rather than routine noise
$1,946 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 11039086, $321,550
- 0x7664...2e50 — Outcome 11039086, $30,060 (73% win rate)
- 0xc4fd...fe19 — Outcome 11039086, $7,000 (93% win rate)
- 0x87ff...6632 — Outcome 11039086, $6,922
- 0xc7b8...8664 — Outcome 11039086, $4,889
- 0x248a...12ab — Outcome 11039086, $3,018
- 0x944e...8c94 — Outcome 11039086, $2,500 (61% win rate)
- 0x5beb...1922 — Outcome 11039086, $2,487
- 0x4be5...c1b3 — Outcome 11039086, $2,000 (82% win rate)
- 0x6512...5291 — Outcome 11039086, $1,488
Related Theses
Starmer exits after May 19
Covers 4 related markets
