Part of: Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,555.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, California Governor

Notable Trades

Brand-new repeat whale

A brand-new wallet made a $5.1k No bet and has already triggered multiple large-bet alerts, suggesting fresh conviction on a political market.

This wallet is only 1.5 hours old but has already placed $8.1k in flagged large bets.
The $5.1k No buy is a clear directional position against Tom Steyer advancing.
Entry at 64¢ implies the bettor sees limited upside for Steyer despite Yes gaining 9 points this week.

$5,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long track record bought Yes into strong recent momentum, and current price is below their entry.

This bettor has won 67% of 1,089 resolved trades and is up about $280K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 63 events with nearly $1.8M deployed.
They bought Yes at 50¢ while the market has moved sharply upward, rising 15.5 points in the last day.

$4,979 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Proven political cross-market bettor

A proven cross-market political bettor with 75% wins over 175 resolved trades is buying No on Steyer advancing, supported by a long history of similar event-level positioning.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $62k lifetime.
They have a long cross-market track record: 27 events, 36 markets, and $144k traded.
Buying No at 70¢ goes against today’s Yes rally, suggesting a deliberate contrarian view.

$1,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial political bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large long-term sample is buying No as Steyer's advance odds have been falling sharply.

This bettor has won 69% of 892 resolved trades and is up $843k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 154 markets with $1.2M in tracked event bets.
The market has moved against Steyer, with Yes down 16.5 points today while this wallet buys No at 80¢.

$1,839 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable sharp buying rebound

Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate is buying Yes on a beaten-down political market despite recent negative momentum.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved bets and is up about $79.8K lifetime.
They are buying Yes at 20¢ after the market fell 31% over the past week.
The wallet has been flagged repeatedly, suggesting this is part of an ongoing high-conviction betting pattern.

$1,220 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved-bet sample is buying No on Steyer advancing, aligned with recent market drift against Yes.

This bettor has won 69% of 884 resolved bets and is up about $806k lifetime.
They have traded across 101 events and 148 markets, suggesting a broad repeatable strategy rather than a one-off bet.
The market has moved against Yes over the past week, and this trade adds to the No side at 70¢.

$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is taking a fresh No position in a plausible political market, though the individual bet size is modest.

This bettor has won 69% of 884 resolved trades and is up about $806k lifetime.
They have traded across 100 events and 147 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
Buying No at 69¢ implies they see Steyer missing the top two as the likely outcome.

$1,113 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial politics trader

Profitable serial cross-market political trader with 884 resolved bets and $806k lifetime P&L bought nearly $6k of No.

This bettor has won 69% of 884 resolved trades and is up about $806k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 99 events and over $1.1M tracked in similar positioning.
A $6k buy at 66¢ shows a clear view that Steyer is less likely to advance than the market implies.

$5,983 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%