Part of: California Governor Election Winner
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Tom Steyer will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. It resolves based on the candidate called as the winner by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with a fallback to “Other” if the race is not confirmed by July 31, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $1,006 in smart money activity and 1 signal tied to this market.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
13 smart money signals detected, totaling $55,898.
Categories: Elections, US Election, Politics, Governor midterms, California Midterm, rewards 100, 4.5, 100, Rewards 300 4.5 50
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor fading candidate
Sharp profitable political bettor is fading Tom Steyer despite only modest size, with an 85% resolved win record and cross-market positioning in the same election.
- This bettor has won 17 of 20 resolved trades and is up about $102K lifetime.
- They are betting against Steyer at an 82¢ equivalent No price, implying confidence he does not win.
- The wallet has also positioned across another market in this same election event.
$1,006 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
80% winner backs longshot
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and +$347k P&L bought Tom Steyer Yes at 12¢.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $347k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 98 markets with nearly $2.4M invested.
- Entry at 12¢ is a longshot bet, implying a large payoff if Steyer’s odds rebound.
$1,593 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
80% winner cross-market thesis
Sharp high-profit wallet with an 80% resolved win rate is adding a cross-market California governor thesis despite recent weakness in the candidate's odds.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $2.44M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 139 events with $5.45M in tracked volume.
- This is part of a 3-market election thesis totaling about $20K, with entry at 11¢ offering high upside if correct.
$1,384 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
29-for-29 sharp bettor
Sharp-wallet override: a 29-for-29 profitable bettor bought $7.2k of No amid a major volume spike and falling Steyer odds.
- This bettor has won all 29 resolved bets and is up $12k lifetime.
- They put $7.2k on No during a 130x volume spike in this market.
- Steyer’s Yes odds are down 14.5% this week, matching the bettor’s direction.
$7,152 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
93% winner buying NO
Sharp 93% win-rate wallet is putting $28K on No, reinforced by same-event cross-market positioning and recent odds moving against Steyer.
- This bettor has won 93% of resolved trades, going 25-2 with positive lifetime profit.
- They put $28K on No and have $33K in related governor-market positions.
- The market has moved against Steyer, with Yes down 15% over the past week.
$28,136 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
85% winner buying longshot
Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved win record and $102k profit is buying the Tom Steyer longshot despite the market drifting down.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $102k lifetime.
- They bought Steyer at 10¢ while the market sits near 8–9¢, suggesting a contrarian view after a sharp weekly drop.
- The same wallet has positioned across 2 markets in this governor race, pointing to an active election thesis.
$1,162 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
85% winner buying longshot
Sharp wallet with an 85% record and $102k profit is buying Tom Steyer at 10¢ despite recent price weakness.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $102k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 10¢, implying a 10x payout if Steyer wins.
- The same wallet has also traded another market in this election event, suggesting a broader California governor thesis.
$1,169 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp politics bettor buying dip
Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved-bet record and $102k profit is buying Tom Steyer Yes despite recent price weakness.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $102k lifetime.
- They bought $2.7k of Yes around 9¢ while the market has fallen 19% this week.
- They are also positioned across another market in the same election event, suggesting a broader California governor thesis.
$2,711 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp contrarian governor bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with 85% win rate and $102k lifetime profit is buying Tom Steyer Yes at 8¢ despite recent market weakness.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $102k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 8¢ after the market fell 19 points this week, making it a contrarian sharp-wallet entry.
- The wallet has $2.6k positioned across two markets in this same election event.
$1,542 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Elite cross-market bettor
Surfacing because this is a proven sharp wallet with an 85% win rate and $1.3M lifetime profit adding a No position in a liquid California governor market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.32M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 110 events with $7.5M in tracked volume.
- Buying No at 89¢ follows a sharp move against Steyer, whose odds are down about 15 points this week.
$2,738 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $371,574
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $82,912 (88% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $76,743 (85% win rate)
- 0x9e87...caa2 — No, $56,385 (99% win rate)
- 0x8671...d4b7 — Yes, $26,919 (81% win rate)
- 0xdc03...804c — Yes, $23,854 (80% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $20,443 (80% win rate)
- 0x10fb...c66c — Yes, $20,062 (63% win rate)
- 0xbefa...300d — Yes, $18,113
- 0x3d18...1160 — Yes, $16,332 (100% win rate)
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