This bettor wins 91% of their trades across 295 resolved markets and is up about $44k lifetime. They are betting across 2 related Trump visit markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a random one-off trade. They bought Yes at 76¢ in a liquid market, implying they still see value even after the market moved higher.

This bettor wins 92% of their resolved trades and is up $3.6k on $18.5k invested They sold Yes at 86¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 14¢ at a very lopsided market price The trade is modest in size, but it comes from a proven wallet rather than routine market flow

This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades, with 189 wins and $68k profit across $1.44M invested. They have traded 203 related markets across 152 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-driven markets. They bought Yes at 90¢ in a market already at 88-89¢, showing conviction even after a 13-point move this week.

Part of: Will Trump visit China by...?

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

16 smart money signals detected, totaling $66,071.

Categories: Trump Presidency, Trump, Politics, China, TikTok, World, Trump-Xi, Trade War, Tariffs

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market political trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a broader $28k thesis across related Trump-visit markets, though this individual buy is small in a liquid market.

This trader is up about $296k across more than 1,100 resolved bets.
They have traded 70 markets across 44 events, showing a repeated cross-market political betting style.
This is part of a broader $28k position across 3 related markets.

$1,662 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$1,520 | Wallet win rate: 91%

91% win-rate bettor

A high-win-rate wallet with 295 resolved bets is taking a fresh cross-market position, making this modest buy worth tracking despite the otherwise weak single signal.

This bettor wins 91% of their trades across 295 resolved markets and is up about $44k lifetime.
They are betting across 2 related Trump visit markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a random one-off trade.
They bought Yes at 76¢ in a liquid market, implying they still see value even after the market moved higher.

$1,803 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

92% winner buys No

A small but notable trade from a bettor with a strong early track record, selling overpriced Yes at 86¢ which translates to buying No at 14¢.

This bettor wins 92% of their resolved trades and is up $3.6k on $18.5k invested
They sold Yes at 86¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 14¢ at a very lopsided market price
The trade is modest in size, but it comes from a proven wallet rather than routine market flow

$1,365 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

97% event specialist

A serial cross-market bettor with a 97% win rate is adding another large event-linked position, which is notable even in a liquid market despite the rich 90¢ entry.

This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades, with 189 wins and $68k profit across $1.44M invested.
They have traded 203 related markets across 152 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-driven markets.
They bought Yes at 90¢ in a market already at 88-89¢, showing conviction even after a 13-point move this week.

$12,724 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%

92% win-rate politics bettor

Surface this because a bettor with a strong early track record and large edge bought into a major politics market at 83¢ as the price is already moving higher.

This bettor wins 92% of their resolved trades and beat the market by a wide margin so far.
They bought Yes at 83¢ in a liquid politics market after the price jumped 7.5 points in a day.
An 83¢ entry means they still see the visit as more likely than the market implies.

$2,752 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

18-wallet funded cluster

A large linked-wallet network with a profitable 70% trader is re-entering this event across multiple related markets, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.

18 wallets funded from the same source have been active together, and this network has shown up repeatedly before.
This bettor has a 70% win rate across 364 resolved markets and is up about $277k lifetime.
They are betting this event across 4 related markets, which points to a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.

$3,887 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

12-wallet funded cluster

A 12-wallet linked cluster is active again, and this wallet has a solid 76% win rate while buying into a liquid market that has already been moving higher.

12 linked wallets share the same funder, pointing to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
This wallet wins 76% of resolved bets across 261 markets, so the flow comes from a proven bettor.
They bought Yes at 77¢ while the market is up 12 points this week, reinforcing the bullish move.

$2,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

84% win-rate event trader

An 84% win-rate trader with nearly $2.0M of cross-market activity is adding a fresh event-level thesis here, making this small buy worth tracking despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades across 129 markets and has put nearly $2.0M to work
They have a repeat pattern of betting across related markets in the same event, which suggests a structured thesis rather than a random punt
Bought Yes at 76¢ in a liquid market, implying they still see value even after the market moved up 10.5 points this week

$1,055 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

87% win-rate contrarian

A highly profitable serial event trader with an 87% win rate bought No at 18¢ in a liquid politics market that has recently moved sharply the other way, making this a notable contrarian bet worth watching.

This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up about $420k across 270 resolved markets
They trade heavily across related events — 96 events and 133 markets — which suggests a repeatable edge in politics-style markets
They bought No at 18¢ while Yes has surged recently, signaling a low-price contrarian view against current momentum

$1,590 on No | Wallet win rate: 22%