86% win-rate macro bettor

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
A highly profitable 86% win-rate bettor reopened a No position at 68¢ in this event after previously closing, suggesting renewed conviction across related shipping markets.
Total
$1,356
Trades
1
Win Rate
85%
Wallet P&L
+$415,537
Analysis
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $406k lifetime.
- They trade across 63 related markets and 32 events, which suggests a repeatable macro-style edge rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 68¢ after previously trading this market, signaling renewed conviction while the market still prices Yes at 33%.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 68¢
Detected April 22, 2026 at 7:08 AM