Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

This Polymarket asks whether IMF Portwatch will report at least 40 ship transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz on any single day before April 30, 2026. The market tracks daily arrivals across container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, making it a closely watched indicator for traders following oil, Iran, and Gulf shipping risk. It resolves to Yes if the threshold is hit on any qualifying day, and No if it never reaches 40 by the deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,144.

Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Profitable contrarian macro bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large proven sample and $223k profit is betting No into a fast-rising Hormuz shipping market, making this a notable contrarian position to watch.

  • This bettor has 1,288 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $223k lifetime
  • They often trade related markets around the same event, with 142 events and $1.34M in tracked volume
  • They bought No at 57¢ while the market has already jumped 25 points this week, making this a clear contrarian stance

$1,144 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $6,000 (57% win rate)
  2. 0xa019...5ffd No, $4,225
  3. 0xdcdd...73a5 No, $3,422 (75% win rate)
  4. 0xe738...df65 No, $2,677 (67% win rate)
  5. 0x7bb9...c1f3 No, $2,664
  6. 0xd324...b23c No, $2,438
  7. 0x2aac...dfad No, $2,125
  8. 0x8f2f...b226 Yes, $2,000 (65% win rate)
  9. 0x47f5...934d Yes, $1,579 (33% win rate)
  10. 0x25f3...0a98 Yes, $1,350

Related Theses

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

9d$1,144 tracked1 signalEconomyU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIranHormuzcloseHormozTrumpOilStrait of Hormuz
Yes
42¢
No
59¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
81¢
52¢
24¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

1h ago

$1,144 on No at 57¢

57¢59¢2¢

Related Theses