Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,500.
Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
86% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable 86% win-rate bettor reopened a No position at 68¢ in this event after previously closing, suggesting renewed conviction across related shipping markets.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $406k lifetime.
- They trade across 63 related markets and 32 events, which suggests a repeatable macro-style edge rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 68¢ after previously trading this market, signaling renewed conviction while the market still prices Yes at 33%.
$1,356 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable contrarian macro bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large proven sample and $223k profit is betting No into a fast-rising Hormuz shipping market, making this a notable contrarian position to watch.
- This bettor has 1,288 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $223k lifetime
- They often trade related markets around the same event, with 142 events and $1.34M in tracked volume
- They bought No at 57¢ while the market has already jumped 25 points this week, making this a clear contrarian stance
$1,144 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0xa510...1f80 — Outcome 81548932, $164,778
- 0x6bab...1292 — Outcome 81548932, $47,766 (58% win rate)
- 0xf2e7...843e — Outcome 81548932, $20,001
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 81548932, $18,785 (82% win rate)
- 0xcc26...32ca — Outcome 81548932, $15,289 (38% win rate)
- 0x6584...3843 — Outcome 81548932, $10,059
- 0xb4c0...92d8 — Outcome 81548932, $8,850 (69% win rate)
- 0x5160...b803 — Outcome 81548932, $8,500
- 0xc77b...a526 — Outcome 81548932, $7,207
- 0xf5c4...0926 — Outcome 81548932, $5,600 (69% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal before May
Covers 10 related markets
Crude oil stays rangebound
Covers 9 related markets
Iran closes airspace in June
Covers 4 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists through June
Covers 8 related markets
