Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,500.
Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
86% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable 86% win-rate bettor reopened a No position at 68¢ in this event after previously closing, suggesting renewed conviction across related shipping markets.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $406k lifetime.
- They trade across 63 related markets and 32 events, which suggests a repeatable macro-style edge rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 68¢ after previously trading this market, signaling renewed conviction while the market still prices Yes at 33%.
$1,356 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable contrarian macro bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large proven sample and $223k profit is betting No into a fast-rising Hormuz shipping market, making this a notable contrarian position to watch.
- This bettor has 1,288 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $223k lifetime
- They often trade related markets around the same event, with 142 events and $1.34M in tracked volume
- They bought No at 57¢ while the market has already jumped 25 points this week, making this a clear contrarian stance
$1,144 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Related Theses
Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal by mid-June
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
