94% win-rate bettor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
A bettor with an exceptional long-term track record sold No at 68¢, which translates to buying Yes around 32¢ in a liquid geopolitical market after a steep weekly drop.
Total
$2,207
Trades
1
Win Rate
94%
Wallet P&L
+$75,266
Analysis
- This bettor wins 94% of their resolved trades and is up $73k across 687 bets.
- They sold No at 68¢, which is the same as buying Yes around 32¢ after this market fell 35.5% in a week.
- The market is reasonably liquid, so this looks more like a deliberate view on mispricing than a random punt.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 32¢
Detected April 27, 2026 at 8:37 PM