Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $189,086.
Categories: Middle East, World, Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Nuclear, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
98% serial cross-market bettor
Surfacing because a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with 1,544 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes into strong market momentum.
- This bettor has won 98% of 1,544 resolved bets and is up $37K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $3.0M deployed across 532 markets.
- The market has strong momentum, with Yes up 18.5 points today and 56.5 points this week.
$6,839 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%
Profitable cross-market trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is buying the pro-deal side during a major volume and price surge, though the position size is modest.
- This bettor has traded across 27 events and is up about $46.7K lifetime.
- They effectively bought Yes at 90¢ as this market saw a 21.8x volume spike.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 20 points in a day and 66 points over the week.
$1,039 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
98% serial cross-market bettor
Surfacing because a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with 1,544 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes into strong market momentum.
- This bettor has won 98% of 1,544 resolved bets and is up $37K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $3.0M deployed across 532 markets.
- The market has strong momentum, with Yes up 18.5 points today and 56.5 points this week.
$3,984 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%
98% serial cross-market bettor
Surfacing because a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with 1,544 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes into strong market momentum.
- This bettor has won 98% of 1,544 resolved bets and is up $37K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $3.0M deployed across 532 markets.
- The market has strong momentum, with Yes up 18.5 points today and 56.5 points this week.
$7,406 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%
98% serial cross-market bettor
Surfacing because a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with 1,544 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes into strong market momentum.
- This bettor has won 98% of 1,544 resolved bets and is up $37K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $3.0M deployed across 532 markets.
- The market has strong momentum, with Yes up 18.5 points today and 56.5 points this week.
$3,841 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%
Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 71% resolved win rate is re-entering Yes after major momentum in a high-stakes politics market.
- This bettor has won 71% of resolved trades and is up about $406k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with 111 markets across 51 events and nearly $3.9M in tracked cross-market volume.
- Buying Yes at 80¢ follows a huge move, with the market up 55 points this week.
$7,548 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Proven cross-market sharp
Proven profitable cross-market trader with a 75% record is re-entering Yes on a major geopolitical market with strong weekly momentum.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $238k lifetime.
- They have traded across 94 events with $7.85M in tracked cross-market volume.
- Buying Yes at 49¢ follows a sharp 21-point weekly move upward.
$1,077 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Proven cross-market sharp
Proven profitable cross-market trader with a 75% record is re-entering Yes on a major geopolitical market with strong weekly momentum.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $238k lifetime.
- They have traded across 94 events with $7.85M in tracked cross-market volume.
- Buying Yes at 49¢ follows a sharp 21-point weekly move upward.
$6,967 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Proven cross-market sharp
Proven profitable cross-market trader with a 75% record is re-entering Yes on a major geopolitical market with strong weekly momentum.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $238k lifetime.
- They have traded across 94 events with $7.85M in tracked cross-market volume.
- Buying Yes at 49¢ follows a sharp 21-point weekly move upward.
$3,213 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Proven cross-market sharp
Proven profitable cross-market trader with a 75% record is re-entering Yes on a major geopolitical market with strong weekly momentum.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $238k lifetime.
- They have traded across 94 events with $7.85M in tracked cross-market volume.
- Buying Yes at 49¢ follows a sharp 21-point weekly move upward.
$3,396 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0x7511...a568 — No, $200,820 (75% win rate)
- 0xc96c...6a98 — No, $194,142 (87% win rate)
- 0x334b...d971 — No, $177,599 (56% win rate)
- 0xa1d8...a786 — No, $142,265 (67% win rate)
- 0x93fb...3e4a — No, $110,934 (43% win rate)
- 0x0ebf...5bfa — No, $94,072 (54% win rate)
- 0x6ca3...590f — No, $76,019 (71% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $75,510 (58% win rate)
- 0x45b5...0c5c — No, $55,064
- 0x93d5...0a45 — No, $49,100 (11% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal after May 26
Covers 3 related markets
