US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

This Polymarket asks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce an official agreement on Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by June 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a mutual agreement is officially reached before the deadline, even if it takes effect later; otherwise it resolves to No. PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,683 in smart money activity on this market, including signals from an 88% win-rate macro bettor.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,683.

Categories: Middle East, World, Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Nuclear

Notable Trades

88% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable serial event trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 32¢ after a sharp one-day drop, making this a credible contrarian entry worth watching.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime
  • They trade heavily across 121 related markets and $3.27M total volume, which suggests real event expertise
  • Bought Yes at 32¢ after this market fell 14.5 points in a day, implying they see the odds as too low

$1,683 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xdbad...9c95 No, $26,186 (62% win rate)
  2. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $20,306 (62% win rate)
  3. 0x162f...798d Yes, $20,023 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x4bbe...2cf3 No, $15,602 (78% win rate)
  5. 0xde7b...5f4b Yes, $14,180 (88% win rate)
  6. 0xfd88...4037 Yes, $14,077
  7. 0xa9ed...b115 Yes, $13,901
  8. 0xa125...00ab Yes, $12,011
  9. 0x7523...4c4c No, $10,000 (47% win rate)
  10. 0xa206...2cad No, $9,000

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US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

77d$1,683 tracked1 signalMiddle EastWorldIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireNuclear
Yes
33¢
No
67¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Price History — “No
78¢
64¢
51¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

2h ago

$1,683 on Yes at 32¢

32¢33¢1¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Nuclear Deal by June 2026 Odds | PolySpotter