Profitable serial macro trader

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large long-term track record is taking a fresh $5.6k No position on a geopolitics market with recent momentum against Yes.
Total
$5,581
Trades
1
Win Rate
63%
Wallet P&L
+$1,608,219
Analysis
- This wallet is up $1.6M across 904 resolved bets, with a 63% hit rate.
- They have traded 64 markets across 44 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Buying No at 49¢ follows a 17-point weekly drop in Yes odds.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 49¢
Detected May 2, 2026 at 9:41 PM