What does the US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 market predict?

It predicts whether the United States and Iran will reach a publicly announced official agreement related to Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by the market deadline.

When does this US-Iran nuclear deal market resolve?

The market resolves based on whether a qualifying agreement is reached by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If no such agreement is officially announced by then, it resolves to No.

What are smart money signals showing in this market?

PolySpotter has tracked $1,400 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market. Recent alerts show activity on both sides, including coordinated Yes flow and newer wallets joining both Yes and No moves.

Where can I track US-Iran nuclear deal prediction market odds?

You can track live Polymarket odds, outcome rules, and smart money alerts for the US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 market on PolySpotter.

Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Q: What counts as a Yes outcome?

A Yes outcome requires a publicly announced mutual agreement between the United States and Iran over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development. The agreement does not need to go into effect before the deadline if it is officially reached before then.

This Polymarket market tracks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce an official mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research or nuclear weapons development by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks the live prediction market odds plus smart money activity, including $1,400 in tracked smart money and recent mixed Yes/No wallet flows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $77,325.

Categories: Israel, Politics, Foreign Policy, World, Iran, Middle East, Geopolitics, Nuclear

Notable Trades

Sharp contrarian buys No

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and $446k profit is taking a contrarian No position after a large Yes-side price move.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $446k lifetime.
They have traded 115 markets across 44 events, suggesting a proven cross-market edge.
They bought No at 28¢ after Yes jumped 21 points in a day, a contrarian fade of the move.

$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial macro bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved-bet history bought Yes on a politically information-sensitive market.

This bettor has won 70% of 417 resolved bets and is up about $250k lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader, active across 89 events with $1.65M total volume.
Entry at 62¢ follows recent upward momentum, with Yes up 4.5 points in the last day.

$1,682 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

New repeat whale buying YES

An 8-day-old wallet with six repeat large-bet alerts is adding Yes exposure on a geopolitically meaningful market, though it has no resolved track record yet.

An 8-day-old wallet has now triggered 6 large-bet alerts totaling $43.4k.
This is fresh Yes exposure at 61¢ on a geopolitical market where informed views are plausible.
The $2k buy is meaningful versus $13.2k in 24h volume, though the wallet has no resolved track record yet.

$2,000 on Yes

New wallet joins Yes surge

New repeat wallet sold No into a large US-Iran deal volume spike, aligning with one-sided Yes flow from multiple wallets, though the wallet has no proven resolved track record.

A new repeat bettor is effectively backing Yes, with $3.1K flagged across recent large trades.
Three wallets are all pushing the same direction, combining for $4.3K of Yes-side flow.
Market activity is unusually hot, with volume spiking 278x versus its historical average.

$1,032 on Yes

Repeat new wallet on Yes

High composite alert from a repeat new wallet selling No, equivalent to buying Yes, amid a major volume spike and one-sided Yes flow.

A new wallet has now made 4 flagged large bets totaling about $5.7K.
Market activity spiked 278x versus its historical average, suggesting unusual positioning.
Three wallets are all leaning Yes, with about $4.3K in same-direction flow.

$1,419 on Yes

Repeat new wallet joins Yes flow

A repeat new-wallet buyer joined one-sided Yes flow during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated positioning despite no resolved track record.

This new wallet has now been flagged 9 times, with $18.5K in notable bets despite no resolved history yet.
Five wallets bought the same Yes side, totaling $7.3K in one-sided flow.
The market saw a 191x volume spike, suggesting a sudden wave of positioning around the nuclear-deal outcome.

$1,368 on Yes

Repeat new wallet joins Yes flow

High-score geopolitical alert with a repeat new wallet buying Yes alongside one-sided cluster flow and a major volume spike.

A repeat new wallet has now been flagged 7 times, with $13.2K in notable bets so far.
Five wallets are all betting Yes in the same window, totaling $7.3K of one-sided flow.
Volume is 191x above its usual pace, while this trade effectively entered Yes at 57¢.

$1,892 on Yes

Coordinated Yes flow spike

Four wallets bought the same effective Yes position during a major volume spike, including a repeat new-wallet large bettor, though there is no resolved track record yet.

Four wallets are all taking the same Yes side, totaling $5.8K across buys and equivalent No sells.
The market is seeing a 149x volume spike versus its historical average, suggesting fresh attention around this thesis.
One new wallet has now been flagged repeatedly, with $7.6K in large bets despite no resolved track record yet.

$5,840 on Yes

Coordinated No flow

Strong coordinated No buying with a 149x volume spike and repeat large-bet new wallet makes this worth surfacing despite no resolved wallet history.

Four wallets bought No in the same window, totaling $18.6k.
This repeat new wallet added $3.1k here after $9.3k in prior flagged bets.
Volume spiked 149x normal as Yes fell 12.5 points today.

$3,096 on No

New wallet joins No surge

New repeat wallet bought $7.7k of No alongside broader one-sided flow and a 159x volume spike on a high-salience geopolitical market.

A new repeat bettor put $7.7k into No at 43¢ across five rapid buys.
Five wallets are all buying No, totaling $29.4k in the same direction.
Volume is running 159x above its historical average, suggesting a sudden shift in attention.

$7,740 on No