Serial macro bettor buying YES

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
A highly active cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate and $224k profit is re-entering YES on a plausible geopolitical market, though the bet size is modest for a liquid market.
Total
$2,029
Trades
1
Win Rate
74%
Wallet P&L
+$231,321
Analysis
- This bettor has won 74% of 332 resolved bets and is up about $224k lifetime.
- They have traded across 76 events and $5.9M in volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 54¢ is a re-entry into YES after the market fell 7% over the past week.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 54¢
Detected May 3, 2026 at 3:08 PM