Smart Money SignalScore: 4.0

Serial macro bettor buying YES

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

A highly active cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate and $224k profit is re-entering YES on a plausible geopolitical market, though the bet size is modest for a liquid market.

Total

$2,029

Trades

1

Win Rate

74%

Wallet P&L

+$231,321

Analysis

Copy Trade

Buy Yes at 54¢

IsraelPoliticsForeign PolicyWorldIranMiddle EastGeopoliticsNuclear
View all alerts for US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Detected May 3, 2026 at 3:08 PM

Serial macro bettor buying YES | PolySpotter