91% serial cross-market sharp
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes on a major geopolitical market, though the position size is modest relative to market liquidity.
Total
$3,646
Trades
1
Win Rate
91%
Wallet P&L
+$777,347
Analysis
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $785K lifetime.
- They have traded across 33 events and 49 markets, suggesting a broad repeatable edge.
- Selling No at 73¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 27¢ on a major geopolitical outcome.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 27¢
Detected May 10, 2026 at 11:00 PM