Part of: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This Polymarket prediction market asks whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market has $8,577 in tracked smart money, with recent activity including Yes and No wallet clusters, and resolves using a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $563,421.
Categories: Military Strikes, Politics, Geopolitics, World, Middle East, Israel, Iran, Trump
Notable Trades
Proven 79% winner adds to No
A highly experienced, profitable trader with a substantial track record is adding to a No position at 82¢ on a liquid geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 79% of 1,224 resolved trades and is up nearly $599,000.
- They are adding No at 82¢ after previously investing $28,639 in the same outcome.
- The market is highly liquid, and No odds have risen 3 points over the past week.
$3,239 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A proven, highly profitable bettor with a strong record and extensive cross-market activity is taking a No-equivalent position, though the individual trade is modest.
- This bettor has won 76% of 378 resolved trades and is up $763,850.
- The $1,050 sale of Yes at 15¢ converts to a No position at 85¢; the wallet has traded across 247 markets.
$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
7-wallet coordinated No position
Seven wallets sharing a funder deployed $28,200 toward No, providing a strong coordinated signal despite the lead wallet's market-rate win record.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder put $28,200 toward No on this market.
- The lead wallet’s $21,000 No buy and Yes sale both point to No at about 84¢.
- The lead bettor has a 65% win rate across 286 resolved bets, though its average winning entry price is also 84¢.
$28,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial trader adds to No
A consistently profitable bettor with an 81% record is adding to an existing No position on a liquid geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 220 of 272 resolved trades and is up $99,270 overall.
- They added $2,520 to No, bringing their investment in the position to about $7,500.
- The market is liquid, and No is trading at 84¢.
$2,520 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
92% winner re-enters No
A highly profitable, proven bettor has re-entered No with a $22.6K position, making this a notable trade despite the market's high liquidity.
- This bettor has won 92% of 422 resolved positions and earned nearly $2.0M in profit.
- They put $22,625 on No at 84¢ after previously investing over $68,000 in the same outcome.
- The wallet has traded across 542 events, supporting a record of broad, repeated market activity.
$22,625 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable serial trader adds to No
A profitable serial trader added $17,261 to an already large No position, alongside a 10.1x market volume spike.
- A bettor with 836 resolved bets is up $333,035 lifetime and added another $17,261 to No.
- This adds to a $92,312 open No position; market activity was 10.1x its historical average.
$17,261 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Recurring eight-wallet linked cluster
An eight-wallet shared-funder cluster recurs across prior scans, though this single No sale appears to reduce an existing position rather than establish fresh Yes conviction.
- The alert links eight wallets to one funder, and the cluster has appeared in prior scans.
- The wallet has 274 resolved bets and is up $37,789, though its 70% win rate is close to its 71% average winning entry price.
- It sold No at 85¢ while already holding $43,000 of No, so this may be position trimming rather than a new Yes bet.
$8,822 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
New whale scaling into No
A five-day-old wallet has repeatedly scaled into a sizable No position, alongside a 10.5x market volume spike, though it lacks a resolved track record.
- A five-day-old wallet has invested about $18,760 in No and added $8,577 across three trades.
- The wallet is increasing an existing No position at 84–85¢, signaling continued conviction against a U.S. invasion before 2027.
- Trading activity was 10.5 times the historical average, providing broader momentum despite the wallet having no resolved positions.
$8,577 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$8,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
88% winner backing No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and nearly $698k lifetime profit bought No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 77 markets and nearly $1.9M flagged in similar positioning.
- Buying No at 84¢ means they are backing the market’s high-confidence view that a U.S. invasion does not happen before 2027.
$1,260 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Top Holders
- 0x0a85...fe9d — Yes, $1,056,379 (26% win rate)
- 0x696d...f89d — Yes, $925,530 (86% win rate)
- 0x8c80...02c3 — Yes, $819,221 (81% win rate)
- 0x950e...f8e5 — Yes, $400,000 (83% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $370,470 (64% win rate)
- 0xad96...d498 — No, $333,640 (94% win rate)
- 0x2d99...4ca3 — No, $290,000 (89% win rate)
- 0xc4d1...8ce8 — No, $250,000 (69% win rate)
- 0xe961...ef1b — Yes, $249,495 (41% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $218,200 (76% win rate)
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