Smart Money SignalScore: 4.0
91% cross-market sharp
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate and +$786k P&L is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitics market.
Total
$3,600
Trades
1
Win Rate
91%
Wallet P&L
+$777,347
Analysis
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $786k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 36 events with nearly $1.5M in flagged activity.
- Selling No at 72¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 28¢, matching the current market price after a 6-point daily move.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 28¢
Detected May 11, 2026 at 12:25 AM