Sharp bettor fading Yes

Project Freedom was a U.S.-led military initiative to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, or the United States military announces that Project Freedom will be restarted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, expressions of openness, reported preparations, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced program goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump, the United States government, and the United States military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sharp profitable wallet with 82% historical wins and +$34.9k P&L is effectively buying No on this market by selling Yes at 42¢.
Total
$2,174
Trades
1
Win Rate
82%
Wallet P&L
+$35,473
Analysis
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $34.9k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying No at 58¢ by selling Yes at 42¢.
- Their past wins came around 50¢ average entry, so this looks like another mispricing call.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 58¢
Detected May 13, 2026 at 7:53 AM