Part of: Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military will announce a restart of Project Freedom, the U.S.-led effort to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, by May 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $2,174 in smart money activity on this market, with recent sharp signals on both Yes buying and Yes fading. The market resolves Yes only if an explicit Project Freedom restart, or a substantially equivalent U.S.-led Hormuz escort initiative, is announced by the deadline.
Project Freedom was a U.S.-led military initiative to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, or the United States military announces that Project Freedom will be restarted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, expressions of openness, reported preparations, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced program goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump, the United States government, and the United States military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,174.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor fading Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with 82% historical wins and +$34.9k P&L is effectively buying No on this market by selling Yes at 42¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $34.9k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying No at 58¢ by selling Yes at 42¢.
- Their past wins came around 50¢ average entry, so this looks like another mispricing call.
$2,174 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven sharp bought Yes
A proven profitable wallet with an 82% win rate bought $4,000 of Yes at 36¢ before the market moved sharply higher.
- This bettor has won 82% of 121 resolved positions and is up about $34.9k lifetime.
- They bought $4,000 of Yes at 36¢, and the market has already moved to about 62%.
- The market is fairly thin with a wide spread, so this trade looks like high-conviction positioning.
$4,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xf20a...642f — Yes, $5,121 (82% win rate)
- 0x9797...c193 — No, $1,500 (54% win rate)
- 0x0da2...1f5a — No, $1,300
- 0x6139...6b7a — No, $1,225 (70% win rate)
- 0x8826...a723 — No, $1,000
- 0x6a6c...004d — Yes, $935
- 0x30f9...fbfc — No, $761
- 0x31c2...f1d3 — Yes, $667
- 0xbc33...dbcd — Yes, $595
- 0xfc90...90b0 — No, $552
