82% win-rate event specialist
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A highly profitable 82% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a thin political event market despite recent odds falling.
Total
$1,223
Trades
1
Win Rate
76%
Wallet P&L
+$917,618
Analysis
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $782k lifetime.
- They are a serial event trader across 181 markets with $3.5M in similar cross-market activity.
- Buying Yes at 45¢ after a sharp 1-day drop suggests they see value against the current 40¢ odds.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 45¢
Detected June 18, 2026 at 12:10 AM