Part of: Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,782.

Categories: Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal, Politics, Iran

Notable Trades

82% win-rate event specialist

A highly profitable 82% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a thin political event market despite recent odds falling.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $782k lifetime.
  • They are a serial event trader across 181 markets with $3.5M in similar cross-market activity.
  • Buying Yes at 45¢ after a sharp 1-day drop suggests they see value against the current 40¢ odds.

$1,560 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

82% win-rate event specialist

A highly profitable 82% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a thin political event market despite recent odds falling.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $782k lifetime.
  • They are a serial event trader across 181 markets with $3.5M in similar cross-market activity.
  • Buying Yes at 45¢ after a sharp 1-day drop suggests they see value against the current 40¢ odds.

$1,223 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa338...2aca Outcome 90834502, $20,001
  2. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 90834502, $2,397 (52% win rate)
  3. 0xd426...334a Outcome 90834502, $2,245 (48% win rate)
  4. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 90834502, $582 (76% win rate)
  5. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 90834502, $506
  6. 0x096a...269d Outcome 90834502, $304
  7. 0xb2fa...ce71 Outcome 90834502, $181
  8. 0x54d1...13f4 Outcome 90834502, $164 (80% win rate)
  9. 0x7b3a...fd80 Outcome 90834502, $120
  10. 0x7076...586d Outcome 90834502, $105

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

ResolvedWho will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?$2,782 tracked2 signalsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranPeace DealPoliticsIran

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

64d ago

$1,560 on Yes at 45¢

Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

67d ago

$1,223 on Yes at 45¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
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Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…