Part of: Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,782.
Categories: Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal, Politics, Iran
Notable Trades
82% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 82% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a thin political event market despite recent odds falling.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $782k lifetime.
- They are a serial event trader across 181 markets with $3.5M in similar cross-market activity.
- Buying Yes at 45¢ after a sharp 1-day drop suggests they see value against the current 40¢ odds.
$1,560 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
82% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 82% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes on a thin political event market despite recent odds falling.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $782k lifetime.
- They are a serial event trader across 181 markets with $3.5M in similar cross-market activity.
- Buying Yes at 45¢ after a sharp 1-day drop suggests they see value against the current 40¢ odds.
$1,223 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xa338...2aca — Outcome 90834502, $20,001
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 90834502, $2,397 (52% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 90834502, $2,245 (48% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 90834502, $582 (76% win rate)
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 90834502, $506
- 0x096a...269d — Outcome 90834502, $304
- 0xb2fa...ce71 — Outcome 90834502, $181
- 0x54d1...13f4 — Outcome 90834502, $164 (80% win rate)
- 0x7b3a...fd80 — Outcome 90834502, $120
- 0x7076...586d — Outcome 90834502, $105
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Iran surrenders uranium in May
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