79% winner buying NO
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No in a diplomatic event market while also positioning across a related market.
Total
$2,173
Trades
1
Win Rate
72%
Wallet P&L
+$274,247
Analysis
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.9K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 2 related US-Iran ceremony markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 81¢ implies strong confidence Shehbaz Sharif will not attend.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 81¢
Detected June 21, 2026 at 2:19 PM