Part of: Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
This prediction market asks whether Shehbaz Sharif will attend an official United States–Iran signing ceremony by July 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves “Yes” only if he attends a qualifying ceremony for the physical signing or execution of the announced diplomatic agreement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $2,173 in smart money activity, with recent signals showing a profitable trader buying “No.”
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,432.
Categories: Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal, Politics, Iran
Notable Trades
79% winner buying NO
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No in a diplomatic event market while also positioning across a related market.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.9K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 2 related US-Iran ceremony markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 81¢ implies strong confidence Shehbaz Sharif will not attend.
$2,173 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
79% winner buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win rate is adding a $3.2k NO position on a politics market with plausible information edge.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.9k lifetime.
- They put $3.2k on NO across two buys, making this a clear directional bet.
- The same wallet is active across related ceremony markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$3,207 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable event specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying Yes across this diplomatic-signing event, though the individual trade size is modest.
- This bettor is up $732K lifetime and has traded across 55 similar events.
- They are building a broader event thesis, with $5K spread across 4 related markets.
- Entry at 20¢ implies they see a potential 5x-style payoff if Shehbaz Sharif attends.
$1,052 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Yes, $5,000 (23% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $3,770 (56% win rate)
- 0x2b67...b814 — No, $3,274 (73% win rate)
- 0x2525...b919 — No, $2,608 (55% win rate)
- 0x8792...4174 — No, $1,682 (81% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — No, $1,565 (54% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $1,331 (47% win rate)
- 0xefde...783d — Yes, $778 (51% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — No, $769 (43% win rate)
- 0xc602...7fc1 — Yes, $500 (43% win rate)
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