4-wallet conflict-market cluster

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
A 4-wallet cluster is collectively rotating into a bearish view on this conflict market with over $64k of one-sided flow across linked signals, even though the individual wallet track records are mixed.
Total
$12,283
Trades
6
Analysis
- Four wallets lined up on the same side, with $12.3k of sells here and another $52.1k of No buying in the same market.
- This is a real geopolitical market with solid volume, so coordinated one-sided flow matters more than a random thin-market punt.
- Most of these wallets had prior positions and are re-entering or rotating exposure, which points to an active thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 68¢
Detected April 3, 2026 at 8:10 PM