Part of: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
This Polymarket asks whether the Iran-Israel/US conflict will effectively end by May 15, 2026, based on a specific rule: a continuous 14-day stretch with no qualifying military action involving Iran, Israel, and the United States must begin before the deadline. Traders are pricing the odds of a sustained de-escalation rather than a formal peace deal, making this market a real-time read on ceasefire expectations and regional tension.
24 smart money signals detected, totaling $135,193.
Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
New whale betting conflict drags on
A 10-day-old wallet has already put nearly $49k into repeated conflict-event bets and just made a fresh $12.9k bearish trade across related markets, suggesting strong conviction rather than routine activity.
- This 10-day-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts and put nearly $49k into flagged trades
- They sold Yes at 82¢, which translates to buying No at 18¢ that this conflict will not end by May 15
- The wallet is also betting across 2 related conflict markets, showing a broader event-driven thesis
$12,933 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
New wallet conflict-event whale
A 9-day-old wallet has already deployed meaningful size across this conflict event and is adding a fresh $12k Yes bet into strong momentum, suggesting high-conviction thematic positioning despite limited resolved history.
- This 9-day-old wallet has already made 8 flagged large bets totaling $35.7k, showing aggressive early conviction
- They bought Yes at 78¢ while this market is up 14.5 points in a day and 46.5 points in a week
- The wallet is betting across 2 related conflict markets, pointing to a broader event-driven thesis
$12,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp cross-market bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is expressing the same thesis across five related conflict markets, making this a credible cross-market signal despite the modest single-ticket size.
- This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $572k lifetime
- They have put nearly $80k across 5 related conflict markets, showing a coordinated event-wide thesis
- They bought Yes at 68¢ while this market has already moved sharply higher, up 12 points in 1 day and 37 points in 1 week
$1,094 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
86% winner, event thesis
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is making a fresh cross-market bet across five related conflict markets, suggesting a coordinated event thesis worth following.
- This bettor wins 86% of their resolved trades and is up about $572k lifetime
- They have put nearly $86k across 5 related conflict markets, which points to a broader event view rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes at 67¢ in a deep market after a 13.5-point one-day pullback, suggesting they see the dip as mispriced
$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% win-rate thesis trader
A bettor with a 91% win rate and six-figure profits is building a cross-market thesis across five related conflict markets, making this small add-on trade worth tracking despite the liquid market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $171k overall.
- They have put $62.5k across 5 related conflict markets, pointing to a broader event view rather than a one-off bet.
- Bought Yes at 64¢ in a market that fell 16.5 points in a day, suggesting they are stepping in after a sharp pullback.
$1,095 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp trio piling into Yes
Three highly profitable wallets with 86-91% win rates all bought Yes across this conflict event, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than random flow.
- Three profitable bettors with 86-91% win rates all bought the same side here.
- These wallets have made $1.07M combined and have been active across 5 related markets in this event.
- They entered at 64-66¢, backing the market even after a sharp 14.5-point pullback in the last day.
$4,595 on Yes
91% win-rate thesis trader
A proven sharp wallet with a 91% win rate is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis and just bought Yes at 63¢ in a highly active conflict market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $170k lifetime across 46 settled bets.
- They have been betting across 5 related markets in the same event, which points to a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- They bought Yes at 63¢ in a liquid market after a sharp 1-day drop, suggesting they see the recent selloff as too pessimistic.
$1,840 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
86% win-rate event bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is making a fresh cross-market event bet, suggesting a coordinated thesis across the Iran-Israel conflict markets rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $333k lifetime
- They have put $131k across 6 related conflict markets, pointing to a broader event thesis
- Bought Yes at 61¢ after a 20-point one-day drop, suggesting they view the pullback as mispriced
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
86% win-rate thesis bettor
A proven high-win-rate trader with over $500k in profits is expressing the same thesis across five related conflict markets, making this a copy-worthy directional signal despite the modest single-ticket size.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $533k overall.
- They have put $81k across 5 related conflict markets, so this looks like a deliberate event-wide view rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 67¢ while the market sits around 68-69¢, backing a continued de-escalation path before May 15.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Active new wallet reloading Yes
A very active new wallet is re-entering the bullish side across multiple related conflict markets with real size as this market has sharply repriced upward.
- This 22-day-old wallet has already made 21 other flagged bets totaling $188k, showing unusually aggressive conviction for a new account.
- The trade was a SELL of No at 21¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 79¢ in a market that is up 37 points over the past week.
- This wallet is betting across 3 related conflict markets with $86k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
$12,441 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x6330...6841 — Outcome 31869663, $400,000
- 0xb871...d447 — Outcome 31869663, $248,790
- 0x1a00...b948 — Outcome 31869663, $150,000
- 0x13cd...0721 — Outcome 31869663, $138,280
- 0x3b23...3fe4 — Outcome 31869663, $100,000
- 0x71c2...5fc4 — Outcome 31869663, $100,000
- 0xb455...d61c — Outcome 31869663, $100,000
- 0xe931...c40b — Outcome 31869663, $100,000
- 0xebae...fb79 — Outcome 31869663, $100,000
- 0xf8c0...04b9 — Outcome 31869663, $99,500
