Smart Money SignalScore: 5.5

New repeat whale buying YES

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

A 5-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a geopolitics/shipping market with a wide spread and modest liquidity.

Total

$1,200

Trades

1

Win Rate

100%

Wallet P&L

+$6,685

Analysis

Copy Trade

Buy Yes at 25¢

PoliticsIran CeasefireIranStrait of HormuzGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
View all alerts for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Detected June 26, 2026 at 4:40 AM

New repeat whale buying YES | PolySpotter