54-wallet linked cluster

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
A profitable 77%-win-rate trader joined a 54-wallet linked cluster pressing the same bearish view in a major geopolitics market, though this specific trade is partly profit-taking from an earlier Yes position.
Total
$11,142
Trades
1
Win Rate
43%
Wallet P&L
+$110,192
Analysis
- 54 wallets put $545k on the same side, with 19 of them linked to the same funder.
- This wallet wins 77% of resolved bets and has traded 125 markets across 82 events.
- The trade effectively adds to the bearish side at 34¢ by selling Yes at 66¢, even though the wallet had an earlier Yes position.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 34¢
Detected April 8, 2026 at 1:25 AM