Part of: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $193,797.
Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Event trader pressing thesis
Worth surfacing because this wallet is making a fresh $17k+ buy into the same conflict event across 5 related markets, following a strong event-level signal despite a mixed but active history on this specific market.
- This wallet has bet $65k across 5 related conflict markets, showing a coordinated event-level view rather than a one-off trade
- The bettor wins 70% of resolved trades, and this new $17.2k buy came at 77¢ with size on a major news-driven market
- Market activity is running 21x above normal, which supports the idea that traders are repositioning around fresh conflict odds
$18,329 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is opening a fresh $6.1k Yes position into a major geopolitical market during a strong volume surge.
- This bettor has 1,065 resolved trades, wins 57% of them, and is up about $110k lifetime
- They trade across related markets often — 48 markets across 28 events — which suggests an event-driven approach worth tracking
- This is a fresh $6.1k buy at 77¢ during a 21x volume spike in a high-attention geopolitical market
$6,144 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable serial event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with 1,017 resolved trades and $225k profit is adding a fresh Yes position in a major geopolitics market at 70¢.
- This bettor has 1,017 resolved trades, wins 66% of them, and is up $225k lifetime
- They regularly trade across related markets, with 30 events and $747k deployed, which suggests an event-driven edge
- They bought Yes at 70¢ in a deep geopolitics market now trading 72¢, implying they still saw value before the latest move
$2,881 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
75% event specialist
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate is opening a fresh Yes position in the Iran conflict end-date market after previously trading both sides, suggesting a deliberate event-level view worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved markets across 1,049 bets and is up $172k lifetime
- They have traded 176 markets across 86 events, which points to a repeatable event-driven strategy rather than a one-off bet
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 79¢ in a heavily watched market after their earlier positions here were fully closed
$1,742 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
87% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable wallet with an 87% win rate is making another event-level thesis bet in a major geopolitics market, which is worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up about $575k across 82 resolved markets
- They have a repeat pattern of betting across 5 to 7 related markets in the same event, suggesting a researched thesis rather than a one-off punt
- They bought Yes at 77¢ in a deep, high-volume market, showing conviction even after a big 1-week move
$1,321 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
83% win-rate event trader
A proven 83% win-rate trader is re-entering the No side in this conflict market after previously closing a larger No position, suggesting a deliberate cross-market thesis rather than routine whale flow.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 254 markets and has traded 58 markets across 28 related events
- They bought No at 25¢ after previously closing a larger No position here, showing fresh conviction at a much cheaper price
- The market is highly liquid, so the signal comes from the trader's track record and repeat event positioning rather than size alone
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Proven event trader buying Yes
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 1,000+ resolved bets is adding a sizable position in a major geopolitics market alongside a broader event thesis.
- This bettor has won 66% of 1,017 resolved trades and is up $225k overall
- They've traded 36 markets across 30 related events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven approach
- The $7.8k buy came near 78¢ in a deep geopolitics market, signaling conviction in a high-probability Yes outcome
$7,811 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
69% win-rate event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 69% win rate reopened a fresh Yes position before a 16-point move higher, making this a modest but still followable signal despite the small size in a liquid market.
- This bettor has won 69% of 559 resolved markets and has put over $1.0M to work across related events
- bullets
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
83% winner joins No cluster
A proven 83% win-rate trader reopened a fresh No position while 7 wallets piled into the same side, creating a strong coordinated signal despite the market's high liquidity.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 254 bets and is up about $59k lifetime
- 7 wallets all bought No on this market, putting nearly $22.8k behind the same view
- This is a fresh re-entry after closing an earlier No position, with this buy filled at 35¢ versus 24¢ now
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
7-wallet No cluster
A 7-wallet one-sided cluster is buying No on a major geopolitics market, and this new wallet re-entered after previously trading the same side, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
- Seven wallets bought No together for $22.8k, a strong one-way signal on a major news-driven market
- This wallet is only 9 days old and has already been flagged twice for large bets, showing fast repeat conviction
- They re-entered No at 37¢ after a prior No trade, which points to renewed bearish conviction even after the price moved
$3,000 on No
Top Holders
- 0xc381...a661 — Outcome 11148027, $2,195,000 (83% win rate)
- 0xe7cb...d447 — Outcome 11148027, $1,003,171 (92% win rate)
- 0x1c12...79d9 — Outcome 11148027, $1,000,452 (17% win rate)
- 0xaf44...7d5d — Outcome 11148027, $715,680
- 0xe349...4291 — Outcome 11148027, $626,950
- 0x7d43...6d78 — Outcome 11148027, $507,000
- 0x2ab5...35f5 — Outcome 11148027, $422,770
- 0x9bd9...d4ec — Outcome 11148027, $398,000
- 0xab12...3683 — Outcome 11148027, $390,000
- 0xcc2b...233b — Outcome 11148027, $290,000
