Part of: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $193,797.
Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Event trader pressing thesis
Worth surfacing because this wallet is making a fresh $17k+ buy into the same conflict event across 5 related markets, following a strong event-level signal despite a mixed but active history on this specific market.
- This wallet has bet $65k across 5 related conflict markets, showing a coordinated event-level view rather than a one-off trade
- The bettor wins 70% of resolved trades, and this new $17.2k buy came at 77¢ with size on a major news-driven market
- Market activity is running 21x above normal, which supports the idea that traders are repositioning around fresh conflict odds
$18,329 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is opening a fresh $6.1k Yes position into a major geopolitical market during a strong volume surge.
- This bettor has 1,065 resolved trades, wins 57% of them, and is up about $110k lifetime
- They trade across related markets often — 48 markets across 28 events — which suggests an event-driven approach worth tracking
- This is a fresh $6.1k buy at 77¢ during a 21x volume spike in a high-attention geopolitical market
$6,144 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with 1,017 resolved trades and $225k profit is adding a fresh Yes position in a major geopolitics market at 70¢.
- This bettor has 1,017 resolved trades, wins 66% of them, and is up $225k lifetime
- They regularly trade across related markets, with 30 events and $747k deployed, which suggests an event-driven edge
- They bought Yes at 70¢ in a deep geopolitics market now trading 72¢, implying they still saw value before the latest move
$2,881 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
75% event specialist
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate is opening a fresh Yes position in the Iran conflict end-date market after previously trading both sides, suggesting a deliberate event-level view worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved markets across 1,049 bets and is up $172k lifetime
- They have traded 176 markets across 86 events, which points to a repeatable event-driven strategy rather than a one-off bet
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 79¢ in a heavily watched market after their earlier positions here were fully closed
$1,742 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
87% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable wallet with an 87% win rate is making another event-level thesis bet in a major geopolitics market, which is worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up about $575k across 82 resolved markets
- They have a repeat pattern of betting across 5 to 7 related markets in the same event, suggesting a researched thesis rather than a one-off punt
- They bought Yes at 77¢ in a deep, high-volume market, showing conviction even after a big 1-week move
$1,321 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
83% win-rate event trader
A proven 83% win-rate trader is re-entering the No side in this conflict market after previously closing a larger No position, suggesting a deliberate cross-market thesis rather than routine whale flow.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 254 markets and has traded 58 markets across 28 related events
- They bought No at 25¢ after previously closing a larger No position here, showing fresh conviction at a much cheaper price
- The market is highly liquid, so the signal comes from the trader's track record and repeat event positioning rather than size alone
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Proven event trader buying Yes
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 1,000+ resolved bets is adding a sizable position in a major geopolitics market alongside a broader event thesis.
- This bettor has won 66% of 1,017 resolved trades and is up $225k overall
- They've traded 36 markets across 30 related events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven approach
- The $7.8k buy came near 78¢ in a deep geopolitics market, signaling conviction in a high-probability Yes outcome
$7,811 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
69% win-rate event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 69% win rate reopened a fresh Yes position before a 16-point move higher, making this a modest but still followable signal despite the small size in a liquid market.
- This bettor has won 69% of 559 resolved markets and has put over $1.0M to work across related events
- bullets
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
83% winner joins No cluster
A proven 83% win-rate trader reopened a fresh No position while 7 wallets piled into the same side, creating a strong coordinated signal despite the market's high liquidity.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 254 bets and is up about $59k lifetime
- 7 wallets all bought No on this market, putting nearly $22.8k behind the same view
- This is a fresh re-entry after closing an earlier No position, with this buy filled at 35¢ versus 24¢ now
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
7-wallet No cluster
A 7-wallet one-sided cluster is buying No on a major geopolitics market, and this new wallet re-entered after previously trading the same side, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
- Seven wallets bought No together for $22.8k, a strong one-way signal on a major news-driven market
- This wallet is only 9 days old and has already been flagged twice for large bets, showing fast repeat conviction
- They re-entered No at 37¢ after a prior No trade, which points to renewed bearish conviction even after the price moved
$3,000 on No
Top Holders
- 0xc381...a661 — No, $2,195,000 (83% win rate)
- 0xe7cb...d447 — No, $1,003,171 (68% win rate)
- 0x1c12...79d9 — No, $1,000,452 (17% win rate)
- 0xaf44...7d5d — No, $715,680
- 0xe349...4291 — No, $626,950
- 0x7d43...6d78 — No, $507,000
- 0x2ab5...35f5 — No, $422,770
- 0x9bd9...d4ec — No, $398,000
- 0xab12...3683 — No, $390,000
- 0xcc2b...233b — No, $290,000
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