4-wallet contrarian cluster

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
A 4-wallet cluster is collectively betting against the market’s dominant view across several related conflict markets, including fresh No buys around 34¢ that now look well-timed after the price moved to 22¢.
Total
$6,486
Trades
4
Analysis
- Four wallets lined up on No for $6.5k total while the market still prices Yes at 78%, a clear contrarian stance.
- Two wallets bought No at 34¢ and the market is now 22¢, showing this flow came before a favorable move.
- The same cluster is active across 5 related conflict markets with more than $123k in total event exposure, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 34¢
Detected April 19, 2026 at 8:06 PM