Part of: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $168,178.
Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
74% winner re-entering Yes
A proven high-volume wallet with a 74% win rate is re-entering this conflict market after previously closing a large position, while also expressing the same thesis across four related event markets.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved trades and is up $235k overall
- They have put $87.7k across 4 related markets in this event, showing a repeated thesis
- This is a fresh re-entry after closing an earlier $40.7k Yes position, now buying again at 89¢
$4,432 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable event trader returns
A high-volume, historically profitable wallet is making a fresh cross-market bet on the same conflict event, buying Yes at 90¢ after previously closing an earlier position.
- This bettor has won 74% of 317 resolved markets and is up about $235k lifetime
- They put $52k across 4 related conflict markets, showing a clear event-wide thesis
- This is a fresh buy after closing an earlier position, with $13.7k added here at 90¢
$13,667 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
14-wallet sharp cluster
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader from a 14-wallet linked cluster bought Yes at 79¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this coordinated sharp flow worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 85% of their trades and is up $1.25M across more than 1,000 resolved bets
- 14 linked wallets share the same funder, and this wallet is part of a broader repeat pattern across 98 events
- They bought Yes at 79¢ in a high-volume geopolitics market after a 32.7-point weekly move, showing continued conviction rather than a random whale bet
$10,210 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable event-thesis trader
A proven profitable high-volume trader with 1,065 resolved bets is building a cross-market thesis on this conflict event and bought before the market moved from 70¢ to 77¢.
- This bettor has 1,065 resolved bets, wins 57% of them, and is up $284k lifetime
- They are trading 3 markets tied to the same conflict event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
- Bought Yes at 70¢ and the market is now 77¢, so the position is already moving their way
$1,210 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
88% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable 88% win-rate wallet with over $1.1M P&L bought Yes at 59¢ and the market has already moved to 81%, reinforcing that this is a sharp cross-market thesis worth following.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime
- They trade heavily across related markets — 5 markets in this event and 141 markets across 89 events
- Bought Yes at 59¢ and the market is now 81¢, showing a strong move in their favor
$3,520 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable 88% win-rate wallet is expressing a cross-market geopolitical thesis here by effectively buying No at 23¢, making this a sharp bettor signal worth surfacing despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime
- They have been building the same thesis across 6 related markets with $175k total tracked flow
- Selling Yes at 77¢ is equivalent to buying No at 23¢, a cheap entry against a market that has already surged 31.8% this week
$3,369 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Proven geopolitical repeat bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 1,000+ resolved bets reopened a large Yes position in a major geopolitics market despite already having traded it successfully before.
- This bettor has 1,017 resolved bets, wins 66% of them, and is up about $225k overall
- They bet across 30 events and put $70.9k into related markets here, suggesting a deliberate event-wide view
- This is a fresh $5.4k buy at 87¢ in a liquid market after previously closing a winning position on the same market
$5,407 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
LLM evaluation failed — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation failed
$2,018 | Wallet win rate: 45%
Pro conflict-event specialist
Profitable high-volume trader with a 74% win rate is re-entering this market and related conflict markets, suggesting a deliberate cross-market thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved trades and is up about $225k overall
- They placed $65k across 4 related markets in the same event, showing a coordinated thesis
- This is a fresh re-entry into Yes at 85¢ after previously closing a large position, signaling renewed conviction
$4,465 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate is reopening a Yes position in this major geopolitical market at 81¢ after previously trading both sides successfully.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $411k across 179 settled markets.
- They have traded 52 related markets across 27 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-driven markets.
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 81¢ in a liquid news market after earlier closed positions, signaling renewed conviction.
$2,181 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Top Holders
- 0x5a57...42dc — Outcome 42541597, $400,000
- 0x7d43...6d78 — Outcome 42541597, $200,136
- 0xebae...fb79 — Outcome 42541597, $193,400
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 42541597, $151,889 (70% win rate)
- 0xe885...38ef — Outcome 42541597, $145,000 (43% win rate)
- 0xab33...fed6 — Outcome 42541597, $140,069
- 0x8cce...5c11 — Outcome 42541597, $97,038 (97% win rate)
- 0xe7f4...bc90 — Outcome 42541597, $84,000 (28% win rate)
- 0x523a...8e28 — Outcome 42541597, $75,000 (40% win rate)
- 0x8d5e...66a4 — Outcome 42541597, $72,000
