6-wallet contrarian cluster

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Six wallets coordinated into No on a major geopolitics market, including several profitable cross-market traders with strong historical win rates, making this a credible contrarian cluster despite the market’s liquidity.
Total
$13,918
Trades
7
Analysis
- Six wallets lined up on No for nearly $14k, a clear coordinated contrarian bet against a 72¢ Yes market.
- Several wallets have strong records, including one bettor winning 82% of 66 resolved markets and another serial cross-market trader winning 82% across 91 markets.
- They entered around 28-32¢ on No, meaning they view the market as materially overstating the odds that conflict ends by April 7.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 30¢
Detected April 19, 2026 at 10:21 PM