87% win-rate geopolitical sharp
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate and nearly $420k in profit bought Yes at 31¢ after a sharp recent price drop, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the market’s high liquidity.
Total
$5,170
Trades
1
Win Rate
22%
Wallet P&L
-$276,546
Analysis
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up about $420k across 269 resolved markets
- They bought Yes at 31¢ after this market fell 25.5 points in a day, suggesting they see the selloff as too extreme
- Their track record spans 95 events and 132 markets, so this looks like a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 31¢
Detected April 8, 2026 at 11:20 AM