4-wallet ceasefire cluster
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Four wallets sold Yes at 64¢ in a coordinated burst on a major geopolitics market, and the market quickly moved to 70% No afterward.
Total
$16,592
Trades
5
Analysis
- Four wallets hit the same side within minutes, putting $16.6k behind No on a major geopolitics market.
- They sold Yes at 64¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 36¢; the market is now 70% No, so the move was quickly validated.
- This came with a 31x volume spike, suggesting a burst of conviction rather than routine trading.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 36¢
Detected April 10, 2026 at 2:52 PM