Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether Russia and Ukraine will officially agree to a general ceasefire by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if both sides publicly announce a mutually agreed halt in military engagement before the deadline, even if the ceasefire begins later. PolySpotter also tracks smart money activity here, including a recent Sharp-led 3-wallet Yes cluster across $10,318 in tracked capital.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $10,318.
Categories: World, Ukraine, Geopolitics, Politics, Foreign Policy, Trump-Zelenskyy, Earn 4%, Ukraine Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Sharp-led 3-wallet Yes cluster
Three wallets piled into Yes during a 31x volume spike, led by one bettor with a strong 77% hit rate and $2.5M profit history, making this coordinated flow worth watching despite mixed wallet quality.
- One of the buyers wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $2.5M lifetime, adding real credibility to this move.
- Three wallets put $10.3k on Yes in a short burst during a 31x volume spike, showing coordinated conviction.
- They bought around 30¢ while the market now sits near 24¢, a cheap re-entry if the ceasefire odds rebound.
$10,318 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xd7f8...89e4 — Yes, $1,027,611
- 0x1a5b...f553 — No, $439,154
- 0x8d0c...5839 — No, $391,236 (74% win rate)
- 0xda3f...c282 — Yes, $340,673
- 0x57ee...ba2a — No, $320,934
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — No, $300,660 (78% win rate)
- 0x93fb...3e4a — Yes, $276,954 (35% win rate)
- 0x1c37...18de — No, $275,036
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $245,840 (71% win rate)
- 0xa53e...218d — Yes, $234,569 (50% win rate)
