Coordinated election long-shot buyers
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Three wallets simultaneously bought the long-shot Yes side in a major Peru election market, including one very active bettor up $741k lifetime and a serial cross-market trader, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than random flow.
Total
$4,431
Trades
3
Analysis
- Three wallets bought Yes together, a one-sided cluster that put $4.4k into the 17-20¢ side.
- One wallet has traded 847 resolved markets and is up $741k lifetime, with activity across 49 events.
- They bought a low-probability outcome at 18-20¢, implying they see Rafael López Aliaga as materially more likely than the market does.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 19¢
Detected April 15, 2026 at 5:06 PM