Part of: Peru Presidential Election Winner
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
This prediction market tracks whether Rafael López Aliaga will win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election, including any second-round runoff. Peru’s general election is scheduled for April 12, 2026, and the market resolves based on the eventual winner, with a fallback to “Other” if no definitive result is known by October 31, 2026. Recent smart money activity highlighted here has leaned toward the No side.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $219,347.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, World Elections, Elections, Peru, Peru Election
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet buying Yes
A 2-week-old wallet with repeat large bets and early profits just made another sizable directional bet on a major election market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching.
- This 2-week-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts and is up $3.6k so far
- The trade was sizable at $8.9k and effectively buys Rafael López Aliaga Yes at 12¢
- This is a fresh bet on a major political market with deep liquidity, not routine profit-taking
$8,863 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Sharp election trader thesis
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and $3.26M P&L added a fresh $4.2k position on No in a major Peru election market, part of a broader multi-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 75% of 1,014 resolved trades and is up $3.26M lifetime
- They have traded 117 markets across 80 events, and put $21.9k across 4 related markets in this event
- They bought No at 86¢, showing a strong view that Rafael López Aliaga is overpriced at 14%
$4,183 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
95% win-rate election bettor
A bettor with a 95% win rate and nearly $39k profit is taking a fresh directional position across related Peru election markets, making this a strong follow despite only one active trade here.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $38.7k overall
- They sold No at 79¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes around 21¢ on Rafael López Aliaga
- The market has also moved up 11 points in a day, suggesting momentum behind this election thesis
$19,816 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
79% win-rate election sharp
A highly profitable sharp wallet with a 79% win rate is expressing a broader Peru election thesis, and this sell of Yes converts into a fresh buy of No around 84¢.
- This bettor wins 79% of 1,008 resolved trades and is up about $604k lifetime.
- They have been trading 3 Peru election markets with nearly $19.8k total, pointing to a broader event-level view rather than a one-off bet.
- This trade effectively buys No at 84¢, showing they do not see Rafael López Aliaga as the winner even after the market moved up 7 points in a day.
$1,651 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
82% winner reloading thesis
A proven 82% win-rate trader with strong profits is re-entering the same event complex across 7 related Peru election markets, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than a random single-market bet.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $326,566 overall.
- They have put $228,660 across 7 Peru election markets, showing a broad event-level view instead of a one-off bet.
- This trade reopens a No position after a prior round trip, with entry at 83¢ implying they still see López Aliaga as unlikely to win.
$3,698 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long cross-market history is reopening a fresh Yes position at 17¢ in a major politics market after previously trading both sides, making this a thesis-driven re-entry worth watching.
- This bettor has made 847 resolved bets and is up $740k lifetime.
- They trade across related election markets at scale: 108 markets across 49 events for nearly $500k.
- Bought Yes at 17¢ in a liquid Peru election market, a low-price entry that implies meaningful upside if their thesis is right.
$2,647 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
82% win-rate election bettor
A proven high-win-rate trader is reopening exposure on this Peru election market via a sizable sell of No, which converts to a fresh buy of Yes around 17¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $299k across 65 settled markets.
- They trade heavily across related election markets: 7 markets in this event for $228k total, suggesting a broader Peru thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- Selling No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 17¢, a low-price entry on a liquid market that has already moved up 6 points today.
$3,282 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable new wallet pressing No
A 19-day-old wallet with strong early profits keeps placing large bets and just put another $9.4k into a liquid Peru election market by buying No at 85¢.
- This 19-day-old wallet has already made $31.6k and has been flagged 11 times for large bets.
- This is a fresh $9.4k buy on No at 85¢, showing continued conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- The wallet is also trading multiple Peru election markets, suggesting a broader election thesis rather than a one-off punt.
$9,414 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
83% winner reloading No
Proven profitable cross-market trader with an 83% win rate reopened a sizable No position in a major Peru election market as event-wide activity surged.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $304k across nearly $2.9M invested.
- They have traded 87 markets across 48 events, including 7 markets tied to this election cycle for $233k total.
- This is a fresh No position at 84¢ after previously closing an earlier stake, showing renewed conviction rather than simple profit-taking.
$3,889 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable election specialist
A highly active and profitable political trader is making a fresh $2.4k buy on this candidate after previously trading both sides, and the wallet’s broad cross-market election activity makes the new entry worth watching.
- This bettor has 847 resolved trades, a 57% win rate, and $741k in profit
- They trade heavily across election markets: 49 events, 108 markets, and nearly $497k tracked by the cross-market signal
- This is a fresh buy of Yes at 19¢ in a deep market, suggesting a renewed view after closing earlier positions
$2,435 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,458,777
- 0xa6fe...2d5d — Yes, $585,128
- 0xf2f6...5817 — No, $98,304 (75% win rate)
- 0xdc03...804c — No, $91,058 (81% win rate)
- 0x9351...9e4d — No, $78,768
- 0xb1ca...1705 — No, $77,388 (59% win rate)
- 0x97fc...3655 — Yes, $72,910
- 0x7fdc...1830 — No, $56,978 (100% win rate)
- 0x784f...5df9 — Yes, $46,663 (87% win rate)
- 0x7644...7f5e — Yes, $40,509
Related Theses
Sánchez Palomino wins Peru presidency
Covers 7 related markets
