Cross-market sharps buying No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Three wallets sold Yes into an 88% market, which translates to buying No around 13-14¢, and the cluster includes one proven high-volume 74% winner with a strong serial cross-market pattern across this event.
Total
$17,688
Trades
3
Analysis
- Three wallets lined up on the same side for $17.7k total, effectively buying No around 13-14¢.
- One bettor wins 74% of 317 resolved markets and is up $225.9k, with a long history trading 108 related markets across 70 events.
- They are fading a market that has already jumped 33 points in a week, suggesting they think the 88¢ Yes price is too rich.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 13¢
Detected April 19, 2026 at 5:14 PM