Part of: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $150,437.
Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
86% win-rate event bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is building a multi-market thesis on the Iran/Israel-US conflict event, making this worth surfacing despite the small single-ticket size.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up nearly $392k lifetime
- They have put $45.6k across 4 related markets in the same event, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
- Bought Yes at 78¢ in a liquid news-driven market, showing conviction even after a strong weekly move
$1,013 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
86% win-rate event bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is expressing a consistent cross-market thesis on this conflict event, and this trade translates to buying No around 23¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of their resolved trades and is up about $419k overall
- They have put $173k across 4 related conflict markets, showing a coordinated event-level view
- This sale of Yes at 77¢ is equivalent to buying No at 23¢, a cheap entry if their thesis is right
$3,409 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
86% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 86% win-rate trader with a long history of cross-market event positioning is fading the market's optimism here, which is notable despite the modest size and liquid market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $419k across $6.35M invested
- They have bet 57 markets across 31 events, including 4 markets tied to this same conflict theme
- They sold Yes at 77¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 23¢ while the market now implies only a 20% chance
$3,087 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Cross-market sharp buying NO
A cross-market trader with a strong same-event pattern and early perfect record sold overpriced Yes shares at 80¢, which translates into a copyable BUY No around 20¢.
- This wallet has bet across 5 related conflict markets for over $70k and is flagged across prior runs with a 92% hit rate signal.
- They sold Yes at 80¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 20¢; with No now around 28¢, the thesis has already moved their way.
- The trade came in a liquid, high-attention market, so the signal is more about trader skill across the event than a random bet in a thin market.
$1,144 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
92% win-rate thesis trader
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet is building a broad thesis across five related conflict markets, and this trade is a fresh re-entry into Yes despite the market already trading rich.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $175.8k lifetime
- They have put $70.6k-$112.0k across 5 related markets on the same conflict thesis
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ in a liquid market, showing continued conviction rather than routine profit-taking
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Cross-market sharps buying No
Three wallets sold Yes into an 88% market, which translates to buying No around 13-14¢, and the cluster includes one proven high-volume 74% winner with a strong serial cross-market pattern across this event.
- Three wallets lined up on the same side for $17.7k total, effectively buying No around 13-14¢.
- One bettor wins 74% of 317 resolved markets and is up $225.9k, with a long history trading 108 related markets across 70 events.
- They are fading a market that has already jumped 33 points in a week, suggesting they think the 88¢ Yes price is too rich.
$17,688 on No
74% win-rate event specialist
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is reopening or refreshing a high-confidence Yes position in a major geopolitics event despite already-rich 90¢ pricing.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved markets and is up $225k lifetime
- They have traded 107 markets across 69 related events, which points to a repeatable edge in event-driven markets
- They bought Yes at 90¢ on a liquid market that has already surged 35 points in a week, showing conviction even after the move
$8,050 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
92% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet is making a fresh cross-market event bet, but this specific trade is weaker because it is a small add-back into a liquid market at an already expensive 86¢.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up about $172k lifetime
- They have put $69k across 5 related conflict markets, showing a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
- This trade bought Yes at 86¢, which is pricey, but it aligns with a bettor who has been right often on similar markets
$1,008 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Proven event trader re-entering
Profitable high-volume event trader with a 74% win rate is re-entering this conflict market at 85¢ as volume surges across related markets, suggesting a renewed thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
- This bettor has won 74% of 317 resolved trades and is up about $225k lifetime
- They are betting across 4 related conflict markets, a pattern that points to a broader event thesis
- This is a fresh re-entry after previously closing a Yes position, with entry at 85¢ while market volume is running 18.4x normal
$7,371 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Pro bettor buying NO
A highly profitable wallet with a strong long-term track record is expressing a cross-market thesis here by selling Yes, which translates into a buyable No at 19¢.
- This bettor wins 77% of their trades and is up $1.7M lifetime
- They have placed $46k across 3 related conflict markets, showing a broader event thesis
- Selling Yes at 81¢ is equivalent to buying No at 19¢, a low-cost contrarian entry
$1,019 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0xb784...3581 — Outcome 96397081, $60,629
- 0x63d8...5f8e — Outcome 96397081, $39,739
- 0x8cce...5c11 — Outcome 96397081, $35,354 (97% win rate)
- 0xff91...a1ed — Outcome 96397081, $32,478 (82% win rate)
- 0xc0c4...2376 — Outcome 96397081, $30,289
- 0x40f1...15f9 — Outcome 96397081, $29,916 (21% win rate)
- 0x57ed...fdf0 — Outcome 96397081, $24,200 (100% win rate)
- 0x8c8a...e62a — Outcome 96397081, $21,579 (57% win rate)
- 0x1997...2e36 — Outcome 96397081, $20,853 (71% win rate)
- 0x293e...7674 — Outcome 96397081, $20,000 (100% win rate)
