86% win-rate event trader

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate is taking a fresh bearish view here by selling Yes at 61¢, which converts to buying No at 39¢.
Total
$2,456
Trades
1
Win Rate
85%
Wallet P&L
+$415,537
Analysis
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $419k lifetime
- They trade across 56 related markets and 30 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Selling Yes at 61¢ is equivalent to buying No at 39¢, a relatively cheap entry versus current Yes odds near 63%
Copy Trade
Buy No at 39¢
Detected April 19, 2026 at 8:13 PM