Smart Money SignalScore: 6.0

Profitable contrarian macro bettor

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large proven sample and $223k profit is betting No into a fast-rising Hormuz shipping market, making this a notable contrarian position to watch.

Total

$1,144

Trades

1

Win Rate

68%

Wallet P&L

+$255,353

Analysis

Copy Trade

Buy No at 57¢

EconomyU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIranHormuzcloseHormozTrumpOilStrait of Hormuz
View all alerts for Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Detected April 20, 2026 at 8:25 AM

Profitable contrarian macro bettor | PolySpotter