Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
2 signals across 2 markets · $3,525 tracked · resolves Nov 1, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks the seven-day average of ship transit calls at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait reported for October 31, 2026. Its listed market asks whether the average will be 25–29 daily transits; a tracked smart-money signal shows a serial cross-market trader betting No, meaning against that range.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial cross-market trader bets No
A $1,260 No bet is unusually large in a thin market, and it comes from a highly active cross-market trader, though the trader’s win rate does not clearly beat their average entry odds.
$1,260Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial bettor adds to No
A profitable bettor with an 82% win rate across 77 resolved markets is adding to an existing No position, with serial cross-market activity and a substantial trade relative to daily volume.
$2,265Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 4.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0xd3ecb2…6603$2,265 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x6139c4…6b7a$1,260 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Bab el-Mandeb Strait ship transits?
The event tracks whether the seven-day average will fall between 25 and 29 daily transits. Check the live market for current odds; no price data was provided here.
What is the smart money betting on?
PolySpotter reports one tracked signal totaling $1,260: a serial cross-market trader bet No on the 25–29 daily-transit range.
What does a No bet mean in this market?
It means the trader is betting that the average will not be between 25 and 29 daily transits. It does not, by itself, indicate whether the average will be above or below that range.
How is the Bab el-Mandeb transit average determined?
The market uses IMF PortWatch’s seven-day moving average of ship transit calls reported for October 31, 2026. Eligible vessel types include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
When does this market resolve?
It resolves once the relevant IMF PortWatch data is published. The market description also refers to a 14-day publication window; consult the full market rules for what happens if the data is not published within that period.