Part of: Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,260.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Hormuz, Houthis, Geopolitics, Bab el-Mandeb, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market trader bets No

A $1,260 No bet is unusually large in a thin market, and it comes from a highly active cross-market trader, though the trader’s win rate does not clearly beat their average entry odds.

  • The $1,260 No bet is over seven times the market’s 24-hour volume, where total liquidity is only $3,314.
  • This trader has placed bets across 85 markets and 58 events, with 1,292 resolved positions.
  • No has moved from the trader’s 48¢ entry to 58¢, in line with the direction of the bet.

$1,260 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Related Theses

Iran deal lands in May

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Iran closes airspace after May 8

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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium

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Israel-Iran peace deal happens

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Blockade persists through June

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IAEA inspections won't happen

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Hormuz traffic normalizes by June

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Likud avoids 25-29 seats

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Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?$1,260 tracked1 signalOilIranHormuzHouthisGeopoliticsBab el-MandebStrait of Hormuz
Yes
63¢
No
38¢

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

Price History — “Yes”
77¢
63¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

2026-10-06 00:26 UTC

$1,260 on No at 48¢

48¢→38¢↓10¢

Related Theses