What does this September 2026 Fed rate market predict?

It predicts whether the Federal Reserve will leave the upper bound of its target federal funds rate unchanged after the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

When does the September 2026 Fed rate market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2026, following the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting.

What does a zero-basis-point outcome mean?

A zero-basis-point change means the Federal Reserve left the upper bound of the target federal funds range unchanged after the September 2026 meeting.

Where can I find the latest Polymarket odds for this market?

Check the live market page for the current Yes and No prices, which represent the market’s implied probabilities and can change as traders update their positions.

Part of: Fed Decision in September?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Q: How is the Fed rate change measured in this market?

The outcome is measured in basis points by comparing the upper bound of the federal funds target range after the meeting with its level before the meeting.

This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will make no change to the upper bound of the federal funds target range after its September 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves on September 16, 2026, based on the rate change in basis points versus the pre-meeting level; live market odds were not included in the provided metadata.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

20 smart money signals detected, totaling $630,528.

Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Fed Rates, Politics, Fed, Economy

Notable Trades

Large-stakes Yes conviction amid volume surge

A profitable high-volume trader is adding to a very large Yes position amid a 70x volume spike, though the existing position makes this weaker as a fresh copy signal.

This established trader is adding $4,095 to Yes while already holding a $61,777 position.
The market saw a 70x spike versus its historical trading volume, alongside a 6% one-day price rise.
The wallet has won 74% of 1,117 resolved bets and is up $155,089, though its typical wins come at much higher prices.

$1,228 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

New whale joins 10-wallet Yes cluster

A heavily funded new wallet is adding over $10,000 to an existing Yes position while 10 wallets collectively buy $115,427 of the same outcome.

Ten wallets are buying Yes together, with $115,427 in coordinated one-sided volume.
This 3-day-old wallet has already invested $61,931 at a 46¢ average and added another $10,138.
The latest Yes entry was 51¢, near the current 50¢ market price, suggesting substantial conviction despite recent pullback.

$10,138 on Yes

New whale joins 10-wallet Yes cluster

A three-day-old wallet is adding heavily to an existing Yes position while 10 wallets collectively commit $115,427 to the same Fed-rate thesis.

This three-day-old wallet bought another $26,562 of Yes, adding to an existing $50,432 position.
Ten wallets are betting Yes with $115,427 in combined capital, providing strong corroboration.
The position was opened around 55¢ while the market is now near 50¢, offering a potentially favorable entry if the coordinated thesis is correct.

$26,562 on Yes

Large-stakes Yes conviction amid volume surge

A profitable high-volume trader is adding to a very large Yes position amid a 70x volume spike, though the existing position makes this weaker as a fresh copy signal.

This established trader is adding $4,095 to Yes while already holding a $61,777 position.
The market saw a 70x spike versus its historical trading volume, alongside a 6% one-day price rise.
The wallet has won 74% of 1,117 resolved bets and is up $155,089, though its typical wins come at much higher prices.

$1,615 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Large-stakes Yes conviction amid volume surge

A profitable high-volume trader is adding to a very large Yes position amid a 70x volume spike, though the existing position makes this weaker as a fresh copy signal.

This established trader is adding $4,095 to Yes while already holding a $61,777 position.
The market saw a 70x spike versus its historical trading volume, alongside a 6% one-day price rise.
The wallet has won 74% of 1,117 resolved bets and is up $155,089, though its typical wins come at much higher prices.

$16,271 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Sharp macro bettor buying No

A highly profitable bettor with 1,580 resolved trades and an 85% win rate is buying No at 60¢ in a liquid Fed market.

This bettor wins 85% of trades across 1,580 resolved positions and is up $2.77 million.
The $2,505 No purchase at 60¢ is a fresh directional bet in a major Fed market.
The wallet also placed $4,216 across two related markets, reinforcing a broader September FOMC view.

$1,940 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Sharp macro bettor buying No

A highly profitable bettor with 1,580 resolved trades and an 85% win rate is buying No at 60¢ in a liquid Fed market.

This bettor wins 85% of trades across 1,580 resolved positions and is up $2.77 million.
The $2,505 No purchase at 60¢ is a fresh directional bet in a major Fed market.
The wallet also placed $4,216 across two related markets, reinforcing a broader September FOMC view.

$2,505 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Large-stakes Yes conviction amid volume surge

A profitable high-volume trader is adding to a very large Yes position amid a 70x volume spike, though the existing position makes this weaker as a fresh copy signal.

This established trader is adding $4,095 to Yes while already holding a $61,777 position.
The market saw a 70x spike versus its historical trading volume, alongside a 6% one-day price rise.
The wallet has won 74% of 1,117 resolved bets and is up $155,089, though its typical wins come at much higher prices.

$6,171 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Large-stakes Yes conviction amid volume surge

A profitable high-volume trader is adding to a very large Yes position amid a 70x volume spike, though the existing position makes this weaker as a fresh copy signal.

This established trader is adding $4,095 to Yes while already holding a $61,777 position.
The market saw a 70x spike versus its historical trading volume, alongside a 6% one-day price rise.
The wallet has won 74% of 1,117 resolved bets and is up $155,089, though its typical wins come at much higher prices.

$2,935 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Whale scales into No

A profitable whale added $360K to an existing No position during an extreme volume spike, creating a notable macro-market conviction signal despite an unexceptional win rate.

This trader added $359,831 to an existing No position, bringing their total investment in the market above $1 million.
The trade represented 138% of the market's 24-hour volume and arrived during a 13,492x historical volume spike.
The wallet is profitable overall at +$1.0 million, though its 57% win rate does not establish a strong standalone edge.

$74,503 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%