Part of: Fed Decision in September?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

This prediction market tracks whether the Federal Reserve makes no change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after its September 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves on September 16, 2026, based on the number of basis points the Fed changes rates versus the level before the meeting. PolySpotter is tracking $7,997 in smart money activity, including one signal from a perfect-record macro bettor.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $7,997.

Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Fed Rates, Politics, Fed, Economy

Notable Trades

Perfect-record macro bettor

Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a perfect 14-0 resolved record and $62k in lifetime profit.

  • This bettor is 14-for-14 on resolved trades and is up $62,264 lifetime.
  • They put nearly $8,000 on Yes at 75¢, a large single bet versus recent market activity.
  • The market is liquid enough to copy, with a tight 1¢ spread around their entry.

$7,997 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $36,431
  2. 0xaf28...7f92 No, $27,918 (69% win rate)
  3. 0xb661...aa83 Yes, $24,305 (67% win rate)
  4. 0xfbe6...00f8 Yes, $21,356 (100% win rate)
  5. 0x71ed...d338 Yes, $4,040 (83% win rate)
  6. 0x4207...b81b Yes, $3,477 (30% win rate)
  7. 0xad8e...776e Yes, $2,610 (86% win rate)
  8. 0xd8d5...3071 Yes, $2,384
  9. 0x1ed4...ff24 Yes, $2,298 (73% win rate)
  10. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $2,205

Related Theses

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 5 related markets

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

92dFed Decision in September?$7,997 tracked1 signalfomcEconomic PolicyJerome PowellFed RatesPoliticsFedEconomy
Yes
69¢
No
31¢

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Price History — “Yes
81¢
74¢
67¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

5d ago

$7,997 on Yes at 75¢

75¢69¢6¢

Related Theses