Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
10 signals across 1 market · $54,187 tracked · resolves Jul 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Iran publicly agrees to end all uranium enrichment by July 31, 2026, either unilaterally or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome around a major Iran nuclear negotiation question, with PolySpotter currently flagging a three-wallet smart-money cluster on No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp wallets piling into No
Four wallets bought $16.9k of No amid a 107x volume spike, including a profitable 81% winner and highly active cross-market bettors.
$16,921Score: 9.9 - Sharp bettor buying NO
Surfaced because the wallet has a proven 81% record over 21 resolved bets and is adding a fresh No position despite only a modest signal score.
$2,815Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 7.6 - 85% winner buying long-shot Yes
A proven 85% winner is taking the contrarian Yes side by selling No at 85¢, making this a copy-worthy sharp-wallet signal despite modest size.
$1,660Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 5.9 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought No, adding to a sharp short-term move in a geopolitics market.
$4,652Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 5.9 - Profitable new wallet on No
A repeat new-wallet bettor with early profits put $4.4k on No, coinciding with a fast move in the same direction on a geopolitics market.
$4,400Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 5.4 - Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought $9.5k of No on a geopolitical market while No rapidly moved up 18.5 percentage points.
$9,465Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 3.9 - Sharp bettor buying NO
Surfaced because the wallet has a proven 81% record over 21 resolved bets and is adding a fresh No position despite only a modest signal score.
$1,581Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 3.9 - Sharp bettor buying NO
Surfaced because the wallet has a proven 81% record over 21 resolved bets and is adding a fresh No position despite only a modest signal score.
$1,933Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 2.0 - 93% winner buying momentum
Sharp-wallet override: a proven 93% winner with positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a geopolitics market despite only a modest $1k trade.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 2.0 - Profitable whale buying No
Despite a low composite score, this is worth surfacing because a highly profitable wallet with 307 resolved bets bought nearly $10k of No and moved the market sharply.
$9,760Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 1.9
Top wallets in this event
- 0xfffadf…864b$9,760 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0x74471a…a16d$9,465 · 1 market · 1 alert · 52% wins
- 0x8c0b63…f0fb$6,329 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 74% wins
- 0x6139c4…6b7a$4,652 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0x35b3de…3dc7$4,400 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0xe3f2ec…e1c1$1,660 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x5026f0…dde1$1,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by July 31?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing the chance that Iran publicly commits to ending all uranium enrichment by the July 31, 2026 deadline. Check the event page for the latest Yes and No prices.
What does the Iran uranium enrichment market resolve on?
It resolves Yes if Iran publicly agrees to end all uranium enrichment by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying pledge can be unilateral or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; otherwise, it resolves No.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $10,416 in smart money activity across this event and flagged one recent signal: a three-wallet cluster taking the No side.
Is this a Polymarket prediction market on Iran nuclear talks?
Yes. This event is a prediction market tied to Iran nuclear negotiations, focused specifically on whether Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment before the stated deadline.
When does this Iran enrichment market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying public agreement or pledge happens by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.