Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
8 signals across 1 market · $20,978 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Iran will publicly agree to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026. Traders are pricing the odds of a “Yes” outcome versus “No,” with PolySpotter tracking $2,013 in smart money activity, including a signal from a profitable serial macro bettor.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is making a large No bet in a very quiet geopolitical market, despite the market being thin and long-dated.
$2,013Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 6.5 - Sharp macro trader buys No
Surfacing because a highly proven cross-market trader with 81% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a geopolitically meaningful Hormuz market.
$2,575Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 5.0 - Profitable new wallet buying Yes
A 13-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits is putting $3,000 on Yes in a geopolitical market.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 5.0 - Repeat new wallet buying NO
A 13-day-old wallet with repeated large-bet activity is taking a $3.3k No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, though its resolved track record is still limited.
$3,300Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 4.5 - 81% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% long-run win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a geopolitical market.
$1,686Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - Profitable sharp buying No
Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with a 76% win rate and nearly $30k lifetime profit bought No on a geopolitically meaningful market.
$3,202Wallet win rate: 56%Score: 2.0 - Profitable sharp buying No
Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with a 76% win rate and nearly $30k lifetime profit bought No on a geopolitically meaningful market.
$2,885Wallet win rate: 56%Score: 2.0 - 14-for-14 bettor flips Yes
Sharp-wallet override: a 14-for-14 profitable bettor is exiting No exposure, effectively taking the Yes side despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
$2,317Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xfb5935…83f9$6,087 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 56% wins
- 0x8597ca…daee$4,261 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x85a858…9281$3,300 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
- 0xae976b…3edc$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0xbb1f2e…907d$2,317 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$2,013 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
The live odds come from the Polymarket market for this event, where traders buy and sell Yes and No shares based on the perceived probability of Iran making a qualifying public agreement before the deadline.
What does this Iran Hormuz prediction market resolve on?
It resolves to Yes if Iran publicly agrees by June 30, 2026, to allow commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization, fees, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. If that does not happen by the deadline, it resolves to No.
Who is betting on this Strait of Hormuz market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,013 in smart money activity on the event, including a recent signal from a profitable serial macro bettor, which may be relevant for users following geopolitics-focused traders.
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter for prediction markets?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global shipping route, especially for energy markets. Any shift in Iran’s public stance on commercial navigation can affect geopolitical risk expectations, making it a natural topic for prediction-market traders.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
This event is scheduled to resolve based on whether the required public agreement occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.