Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
11 signals across 1 market · $31,178 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This event tracks whether Iran will publicly agree by May 31, 2026 to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome on Polymarket, with PolySpotter highlighting $12.7K in tracked smart-money activity, including recent NO buying from a serial macro trader.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp bettor fading news spike
Sharp profitable wallet faded a major Yes spike, with strong corroborating volume and price-impact signals.
$3,605Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 7.5 - 88% winner flipping toward Yes
Sharp 88% winning cross-market trader is selling No into a major Yes price surge, with volume and price-impact signals supporting the move.
$2,273Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 6.2 - Serial macro trader buying NO
Serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate and positive P&L put $5k on No in a geopolitics market.
$5,000Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$2,440Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial trader re-enters NO
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is re-entering No after a sharp Yes-side rally, with the market already moving in their favor from 74¢ to 81¢.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial geopolitics bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 647 resolved bets is re-entering a No position on a geopolitical market, but the edge is moderate rather than exceptional.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 648 resolved bets and $218k lifetime profit is re-entering a No position near resolution on a geopolitical market.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial geopolitics bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 647 resolved bets is re-entering No on a geopolitical market, though the trade size is modest relative to market liquidity.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.0 - Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable, highly experienced cross-market trader bought No, though sizing is modest and the market is still far from resolution.
$1,412Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying the long-shot Yes side at 11¢ on a geopolitical market.
$3,869Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xd44e97…67e2$17,860 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 61% wins
- 0xb4f259…e5fa$7,440 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xfb5935…83f9$3,605 · 1 market · 1 alert · 55% wins
- 0xe52c0a…6924$2,273 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
The live Polymarket odds show how traders are pricing the chance that Iran publicly agrees to unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline. Because this is a geopolitical market, prices can move quickly on official statements, military developments, sanctions news, or diplomatic negotiations.
What is the smart money doing on this Hormuz shipping market?
PolySpotter has tracked $12,720 in smart-money activity across this event, with 4 signals. Recent alerts include a serial macro trader buying NO, as well as activity from profitable cross-market and serial macro bettors.
What would make this market resolve Yes?
It resolves Yes if Iran publicly agrees by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to allow commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization, fees, or other Iran-imposed restrictions.
What would make this market resolve No?
It resolves No if Iran does not make a qualifying public agreement by the deadline, or if any statement falls short of allowing unrestricted commercial navigation as defined by the market rules.
Why do traders care about the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy chokepoint, so changes in shipping access can affect oil markets, geopolitical risk, and U.S.-Iran tensions. That makes this a closely watched prediction market for macro and geopolitics-focused traders.