Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
2 signals across 1 market · $7,775 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether Iran will publicly agree to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by the April 30, 2026 resolution deadline. Traders are pricing a Yes/No outcome tied to a major geopolitical and energy-market question, with PolySpotter tracking $7,775 in smart money activity and recent signals from high win-rate macro bettors.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 90% win-rate macro bettor
Surface this because a high-volume trader with a 90% win rate across 121 resolved markets is taking a sizable directional position on a geopolitics market despite the alert being driven by just one signal.
$6,175Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 4.0 - 94% win-rate bettor
A bettor with an exceptional long-term record bought No in a geopolitics market after a sharp price move, making this a credible follow despite the modest size.
$1,600Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x5f176a…519e$6,175 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0x5fdf53…28a2$1,600 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
The live odds are set by Polymarket traders buying and selling Yes and No shares. This event reflects the market’s current probability that Iran publicly agrees to allow commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian permission, fees, or other Iran-imposed restrictions by the deadline.
What is the smart money doing on this Hormuz shipping market?
PolySpotter has tracked $7,775 in smart money activity across this event, including signals from a 90% win-rate macro bettor and a 94% win-rate bettor. Those alerts can help identify whether experienced traders are positioning for Yes or No as geopolitical headlines develop.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether the required public agreement occurs by April 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If Iran does not publicly agree to unrestricted commercial navigation by then, the market resolves to No.
What counts as unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz?
For this market, unrestricted commercial navigation means Iran publicly agrees that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization, payments to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions.
Why do traders care about this Iran Hormuz prediction market?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy shipments, so any change in Iran’s stance could affect oil markets, regional tensions, and U.S.-Iran geopolitics. Prediction-market odds give traders a real-time view of how likely the crowd thinks such an agreement is.