Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

This prediction market asks whether Iran will initiate a general, non-weather-related closure of its airspace, including commercial flights through the Tehran FIR, by July 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $5,182 in smart money activity, with the latest signal showing an 81% winner buying NO.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,616.

Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close

Notable Trades

81% winner buys NO

Sharp wallet override: a profitable 81% winner bought $4.4k of No on a geopolitical airspace market while also trading a related event market.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $53k lifetime.
  • They put $4.4k on No at 81¢ in a market with only $12k liquidity.
  • They are also trading a related Iran airspace market, suggesting a broader thesis.

$5,182 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

81% winner buys NO

Sharp wallet override: a profitable 81% winner bought $4.4k of No on a geopolitical airspace market while also trading a related event market.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $53k lifetime.
  • They put $4.4k on No at 81¢ in a market with only $12k liquidity.
  • They are also trading a related Iran airspace market, suggesting a broader thesis.

$4,434 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbf96...9942 No, $11,580 (81% win rate)
  2. 0x67d0...db7a Yes, $6,661 (35% win rate)
  3. 0xfd66...fb6d Yes, $4,100 (23% win rate)
  4. 0x9352...2227 No, $3,185 (65% win rate)
  5. 0x9592...a7b8 Yes, $2,673 (93% win rate)
  6. 0x80a0...5708 Yes, $2,000 (36% win rate)
  7. 0xe8c4...395d No, $1,981 (96% win rate)
  8. 0xd0d9...d6db Yes, $1,229
  9. 0x836f...906e No, $829 (98% win rate)
  10. 0x0bfb...26a7 No, $600

Related Theses

Starmer exits by June 2026

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Iran surrenders in June

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Hormuz traffic stays below thresholds

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Iran airspace stays open

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No lasting Israel-Hezbollah peace

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Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

13dIran full airspace closure by...?$9,616 tracked2 signalsU.S. x IranIsrael x IranIran CeasefireIranclose
Yes
17¢
No
84¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
93¢
71¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

3d ago

$5,182 on No at 81¢

81¢84¢3¢

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

3d ago

$4,434 on No at 81¢

81¢84¢3¢

Related Theses