Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
4 signals across 3 markets · $9,583 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Iran launches qualifying drone, missile, or air strikes against Azerbaijan, Iraq, or the UAE by April 30, 2026. PolySpotter has tracked $9,583 in smart money activity across the event, with recent signals including pro traders fading a spike and sharp bettors buying “No” on related outcomes.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Pro trader fading spike
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader bought No during a major volume spike after a sharp run-up, suggesting a deliberate fade of elevated Iran-strike odds.
$1,367Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 6.7 - Sharp bettor buys No
A proven high-volume bettor with a 72% win rate made a dominant-sized trade on a thin geopolitics market, suggesting this No position is worth tracking despite the moderate composite score.
$1,699Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 5.0 - Pro geopolitics NO buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No after a sharp move in a geopolitics market, and the position is already up from 67¢ to 76¢.
$4,729Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.5 - 85% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate bought into a geopolitics market that has already moved from 90% to 94%, making this a decent follow despite only one signal.
$1,788Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$6,096 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xcdb1f1…276c$1,788 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$1,699 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
FAQs
What are the Iran military action by April 30 odds on Polymarket?
The event aggregates prediction-market trading on whether Iran strikes Azerbaijan, Iraq, or the UAE by the April 30, 2026 deadline. Each child market has its own Yes/No odds that update as traders react to geopolitical news and risk signals.
Which countries are included in this Iran strike prediction market?
This event covers three listed outcomes: whether Iran strikes Azerbaijan, whether Iran strikes Iraq, and whether Iran strikes the UAE by April 30, 2026.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $9,583 in smart money across four signals. Recent alerts lean toward skepticism of a spike, including a pro trader fading the move, a sharp bettor buying “No,” and a pro geopolitics No buyer.
When does this Iran military action market resolve?
The markets are scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying Iranian drone, missile, or air strike occurs by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, subject to the market’s official resolution criteria.
What counts as a “Yes” in these markets?
A “Yes” requires Iran to initiate a qualifying aerial bomb, drone, or missile strike that impacts the listed country’s soil or its official embassy or consulate before the deadline.